Author Topic: Trumpmageddon  (Read 30093 times)

Ali

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Re: Trumpmageddon
« Reply #400 on: 09 Jan 2018, 15:36 »
It just shows how easily people are misinformed and will believe anything that supports their own preconceived notions.

It does also reflect on the absurdity of the man, that ludicrous satire is only a few degrees apart from reality.

Khris

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Re: Trumpmageddon
« Reply #401 on: 09 Jan 2018, 15:52 »
Btw, it's uncanny how spot-on Snarky's predictions from 14 months ago are.

Re: Trumpmageddon
« Reply #402 on: 09 Jan 2018, 16:49 »
It just shows how easily people are misinformed and will believe anything that supports their own preconceived notions.
... while I highly doubt its authenticity ...
I do agree, it does sound real enough to be true...

Gurok

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Re: Trumpmageddon
« Reply #403 on: 09 Jan 2018, 16:54 »
It just shows how easily people are misinformed and will believe anything that supports their own preconceived notions.
Btw, it's uncanny how spot-on Snarky's predictions from 14 months ago are.
Hope that was tongue-in-cheek, Khris

Monsieur OUXX

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Re: Trumpmageddon
« Reply #404 on: 09 Jan 2018, 17:17 »
Btw, it's uncanny how spot-on Snarky's predictions from 14 months ago are.
Hope that was tongue-in-cheek, Khris

the funny part is that Trump is already the  "short-on-expertise extremist/sycophant/charlatan" about whom Snarky is talking, if you compare him to literally any US politician before the 90's, even the ones from his own political family.
 

Khris

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Re: Trumpmageddon
« Reply #405 on: 09 Jan 2018, 18:10 »
Hope that was tongue-in-cheek, Khris
Not at all.
(I'm also very familiar with confirmation bias and other cognitive biases, in case you think I'm not.)
« Last Edit: 09 Jan 2018, 18:11 by Khris »

Snarky

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Re: Trumpmageddon
« Reply #406 on: 09 Jan 2018, 21:38 »
I'm not sure I'd say spot-on, but I don't think I was too far off either.

I'm guessing Gurok's main objection is my prediction that:

Anti-trade policies and attempts to "get tough" in trade negotiations with China and other countries lead to retributory policies that may escalate into a trade war. Together with the uncertainty caused by Trump's erratic behavior, this causes the economy to plunge into another recession.

In fact, the economy appears to be doing pretty well so far.

To that I would say: First, Trump hasn't really followed through (yet) on most of his campaign promises on trade policy, apart from killing off the TPP deal. That has hurt the US, but the real damage would happen if he pulled the US out of NAFTA or launched a trade war with China or the EU. These things are still real risks, even though in terms of policy, Trump has deferred more to orthodox conservative and neoliberal advisors than I expected.

Second, it's still early days, and much of the growth we're seeing has nothing to do with Trump, but merely continues the trend from the Obama administration.

Third, Republicans are jacking up the economy with aggressive deregulation and tax cuts. They have for example removed most of the rules put in place after 2007-2008 to try to prevent the abuses that led to the financial crisis. (Among them the rule that financial advisors for retirement accounts have a duty to act in the best interest of their clients. Yes, Trump and the GOP felt it was a priority to make sure that Wall Street is allowed to scam people out of their retirement savings.) Measures such as these are like giving the economy cocaine: sure, it feels great for a while, but you're heading for an inevitable crash. Economists are already starting to talk about another bubble. And as I said:

Deep tax cuts lead to giant deficits, and to cuts in government programs and staffing.

A tax giveaway almost entirely to the rich and corporations, adding trillions to the deficit. Yeah, there's no way that's going to come back to bite America in the ass...

The bottom line is that I still think Trump is disastrous for the economy in the long run, but if he only serves one term he might get away with it during his presidency, and leave it to his successor to deal with the mess he's created.

One thing I think I was wrong about was my prediction that:

Trump's shtick wears thin very quickly even for many who voted for him. His approval ratings fall to somewhere around the George W. Bush low point of 25%.

Unless there is an economic crisis or an unpopular war, I no longer think that's very likely to happen. America is so polarized, and fealty to the Dear Leader is such an important identity marker for the right (just witness the way they'll tear apart any of their own who shows disloyalty, from Jeff Flake to Steve Bannon), that I think Trump's base will stick with him almost no matter what. That base is probably somewhere between 30-35% of the population.

Mandle

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Re: Trumpmageddon
« Reply #407 on: 09 Jan 2018, 23:39 »
It just shows how easily people are misinformed and will believe anything that supports their own preconceived notions.

And a recent poll on Gorilla TV showed that not a single ape believed a word of it.

People so silly.