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Community => General Discussion => Topic started by: Snarky on 14 Mar 2020, 11:38

Title: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Snarky on 14 Mar 2020, 11:38
So yeah.

I suppose I'm not the only one whose experience of the COVID-19 pandemic feels slightly surreal. Something we've been hearing about for months, but very far away, gradually spreading and coming nearer and nearer (I remember following the news over the last few weeks… OK, it's in Korea, on Tenerife, in Italy, in Finland, in Norway… in the local school), with people only slowly starting to take it seriously. Until things start to move very rapidly and we're all on lockdown.

The streets are so quiet now, with most people working from home and with restaurants, movie theaters, gyms, libraries and other public gathering places closed. Some store shelves are empty (though the panic-buying appears to have abated). So many little ways in which we take precautions. On buses, the space around the driver is cordoned off. People struggle to break habits to shake hands or hug. I stopped at a gas/charging station to charge my car, and an attendant was wiping down the charging handles and touch screens with disinfectant; inside, all the pastries were bagged up, and if you wanted a hot dog you couldn't help yourself to ketchup and mustard, they were placed behind the counter. Life goes on for most of us, but just not quite as normal.

I hope you're all staying healthy. If you're in isolation, quarantine or just "self-isolating," it's a good time to play some AGS games, eh?
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Olleh19 on 14 Mar 2020, 11:55
Or create some AGS Games! :-D

But yes, you are right. I am one of those lucky bastards that can stay at home for long periods of time without worrying about if i can pay the bills or not..But still you got to get those groceries, i suppose :shocked:
You've buckled up those tincans?  :-\
So many "we are going to die" people on my facebook, keep bumping that one up. Was so long ago i ate that kind of food, but if there's any time for it. I guess it's now! (laugh)
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: JackPutter on 14 Mar 2020, 13:11
I have been sent home from work for the next few weeks with the responsibility of keeping myself safe and well so I can come in to replace anyone who gets sick. I'm basically being paid to stay at home and shutter myself in. It's left me with a lot of free time, since I can't really go out socialising or anything like that. I will no doubt be using some of that time to practice developing with AGS, but I really wish it was under better circumstances.

I would urge people to use reputable news sources when it comes to gathering information on the virus, as I have seen a lot of misinformation being spread... especially on social media. It's very easy to see emotionally-targeted headlines or photos and start feeling the panic set in, so going to trusted news outlets to get accurate information from credible experts can help keep the facts straight in your head and certainly helps me feel less panicked. (I recommend the Reuters news service, they are an international news organisation which is not tied to any individual country or political ideology, they cross-reference everything they post and make multiple revisions on articles as the information changes, and they are consistently rated as the least-biased news source under independent review.)

My country has closed all schools, universities, and childcare facilities for the next two weeks, and it caused a sudden rush of crowds heading to the grocery stores to stockpile supplies. When I went to the shops after the announcement there were lots of empty shelves. At no point was it suggested that any food or supplies in general would become short, the only changes were that the education institutes would close, but people jumped to conclusions and raced out to buy far more than they need, depriving others of the essential items like bread, milk, eggs, toilet paper, etc. The supermarkets have plenty of supplies in the warehouses, the stores are all completely re-stocked already! No need for anyone to stockpile.

I could talk about this all day, but I'll finish up by saying that escapism is very important in situations like this. Sure, stay on top of the major announcements and events, but you need to switch off your brain too so that you don't get overwhelmed. So lose yourself in a good book, binge watch that series that you've been meaning to get around to, or dive into playing (or creating) a new game and follow another character's story for a while. This world is tough to handle at the moment, there's nothing wrong with wrapping yourself up in another one for a while.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Laura Hunt on 14 Mar 2020, 13:33
I'm in Gran Canaria spending a few days with my mom and even though things here are really calm and under control, I've decided to cut my trip short and return to Berlin tomorrow morning in case of overnight border closings, flight restrictions, etc. My office is closed and we're to work from home for the next 15 days or so. I'm used to spending lots of time at home (introverts unite! But far from each other!) so this won't be an issue for me, but I'm concerned about all the asshole Hamsterkäufer leaving the rest of us without any supplies. Germany is reacting super slow though (Berlin clubs are being closed on Tuesday instead of right now because god forbid that people have their weekend ruined!), so let's see how this whole thing develops... (roll)

By the way, isn't "global pandemic" a pleonasm? :-D
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Cassiebsg on 14 Mar 2020, 14:16
It's the same over here JackPutter, they even decided to use the excuse to close the border today until then 13th april.  (roll) Of course, if you're a national or driving a truck in/out with supplies you still can cross the border... just turists can't. Considering that the 1st that tested positive here was a danish journalist that returned from a conference in Germany, I don't see how stopping tourists only will help anything. They're likely not the ones going to visit sick relatives in the hospital or the ones in a resting home.  (roll)

My husband was shopping this morning, like he does every Saturday morning, where we get milk and fresh bread. No fresh bread cause of the virus, and no milk cause of the hoarders... and then one other costumer was complaining about how bad it was that there was no milk and yadda yadda, and finished with "It's good I bought 15 liters yesterday!"  8-0 My husband felt like hitting him.  :-\

PS - This is not the pasteurized milk that can hold a month or more, but the kind that can hold about a week...
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Crimson Wizard on 14 Mar 2020, 15:51
I think it's a good occasion for someone to write a new "Decameron" of XXI century.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Laura Hunt on 14 Mar 2020, 16:07
I think it's a good occasion for someone to write a new "Decameron" of XXI century.

That would be awesome, but nowadays it would basically be a compilation of "the best 100 coronavirus tweets" or something :-D

Has anybody watched Buñuel's "The exterminating Angel"? I think I'm going to give it a re-watch one of these days. SO GOOD, and so fitting right now.

Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: TheFrighter on 14 Mar 2020, 20:11

Italia is off-limits, how boring.

_
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Laura Hunt on 14 Mar 2020, 20:27
Welp, our Prime Minister just appeared on TV to announce a battery of measures to put Spain on lockdown, pretty much the same as Italy. Which country will be next?
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: lorenzo on 14 Mar 2020, 21:07
I think it's a good occasion for someone to write a new "Decameron" of XXI century.
As gatherings are prohibited in Italy at the moment, it'll be difficult for the ten narrators to escape the city for the countryside this time, to pass the time with tales and games. ;)
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Pogwizd on 14 Mar 2020, 21:37
Quote
Welp, our Prime Minister just appeared on TV to announce a battery of measures to put Spain on lockdown, pretty much the same as Italy. Which country will be next?

Poland has been in a complete lockdown for last couple of days. There were even attempts to lock down specific regions. Also, any public gatherings of more than 50 people are forbidden and cinemas, schools, unis, museums, shopping malls and the like are closed down. 
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Ali on 14 Mar 2020, 23:24
Everything is fine in Britain. Thanks to Brexit, we're too plucky and independent to be affected by things happening in the real world.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Matti on 15 Mar 2020, 10:02
I'm concerned about all the asshole Hamsterkäufer leaving the rest of us without any supplies.

Yes, that is annoying. Two days ago when I went to buy groceries, it was quite crowded and most of the people jam-packed their shopping carts. A few days before that I couldn't get any toiletpaper.

Quote
Germany is reacting super slow though (Berlin clubs are being closed on Tuesday instead of right now because god forbid that people have their weekend ruined!), so let's see how this whole thing develops... (roll)

Well, as of yesterday evening bars and clubs are being closed in Berlin and any event with more than 50 people is prohibited.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Mandle on 15 Mar 2020, 10:05
Lightly considering getting out of Japan and heading back to Australia at the moment. Very likely Japan will do a lockdown soon, and I'd rather be in a place with at least wide open spaces and nice scenery when society goes completely nuts.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Creamy on 15 Mar 2020, 11:47
Quote
Quote
I'm concerned about all the asshole Hamsterkäufer leaving the rest of us without any supplies.


Yes, that is annoying. Two days ago when I went to buy groceries, it was quite crowded and most of the people jam-packed their shopping carts. A few days before that I couldn't get any toiletpaper.
It's getting a little crazy here too. Friday the supermarket where I usually go was packed.

Nurseries, schools and universities are closed. All gatherings with more than 100 people are forbidden.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Laura Hunt on 15 Mar 2020, 12:14
I'm concerned about all the asshole Hamsterkäufer leaving the rest of us without any supplies.

Yes, that is annoying. Two days ago when I went to buy groceries, it was quite crowded and most of the people jam-packed their shopping carts. A few days before that I couldn't get any toiletpaper.

Quote
Germany is reacting super slow though (Berlin clubs are being closed on Tuesday instead of right now because god forbid that people have their weekend ruined!), so let's see how this whole thing develops... (roll)

Well, as of yesterday evening bars and clubs are being closed in Berlin and any event with more than 50 people is prohibited.

Yeah, and parks are still full of people and there has been no attempt whatsoever at keeping people at home, unless I've missed something in the last few hours. Self-isolation is still entirely optional as far as I know. And restaurants are still open.

I've also heard (and take this with a grain of salt, as with any through-the-grapevine info) that the number of deaths reported in Germany is so much lower than in other countries because it's considered that if you had a pre-existing condition and you catch coronavirus and die, your death is counted as being caused by your condition and not from the virus. Might be not be true, but seeing how little effort people around me are showing to even avoid contact with others, I don't really see many other reasons to explain the fact that out of over 5k reported cases and NO self isolation measures in place, somehow magically there have been only 9 deaths, especially considering Germany's massive senior population (senior care centers are still open and admitting visitors, right? Not 100% sure about that one.)

Something is going on here, and it smells like information manipulation at its finest.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Snarky on 15 Mar 2020, 13:00
Whatever the truth might be about the real numbers, I'd point out that people who are not actually in isolation (those who are sick or have a confirmed infection), but are either in quarantine (because they may have been exposed) or practicing "social distancing" don't have to stay indoors at home all the time.

As long as you can avoid coming in close contact with people you don't live with (ideally keeping a 2m distance) and you practice good hygiene (washing hands thoroughly before you go out and when you come back, avoid touching surfaces that others touch), it's fine to leave the house and for example go to the park.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Laura Hunt on 15 Mar 2020, 13:22
Whatever the truth might be about the real numbers, I'd point out that people who are not actually in isolation (those who are sick or have a confirmed infection), but are either in quarantine (because they may have been exposed) or practicing "social distancing" don't have to stay indoors at home all the time.

Maybe that's the case where you live, but in Spain, the State of Alert (a less restrictive version of the State of Emergency) was declared yesterday and among other things, staying at home is mandatory for the whole population with a few explicit exceptions. I'm not fucking around when I say "lockdown".

Full text here (https://www.boe.es/boe/dias/2020/03/14/pdfs/BOE-A-2020-3692.pdf), and relevant section here, if you can read Spanish:

Quote
Artículo 7. Limitación de la libertad de circulación de las personas.
1. Durante la vigencia del estado de alarma las personas únicamente podrán
circular por las vías de uso público para la realización de las siguientes actividades:
a) Adquisición de alimentos, productos farmacéuticos y de primera necesidad.
b) Asistencia a centros, servicios y establecimientos sanitarios.
c) Desplazamiento al lugar de trabajo para efectuar su prestación laboral,
profesional o empresarial.
d) Retorno al lugar de residencia habitual.
e) Asistencia y cuidado a mayores, menores, dependientes, personas con
discapacidad o personas especialmente vulnerables.
f) Desplazamiento a entidades financieras y de seguros.
g) Por causa de fuerza mayor o situación de necesidad.
h) Cualquier otra actividad de análoga naturaleza que habrá de hacerse
individualmente, salvo que se acompañe a personas con discapacidad o por otra causa
justificada.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Matti on 15 Mar 2020, 13:41
I've also heard (and take this with a grain of salt, as with any through-the-grapevine info) that the number of deaths reported in Germany is so much lower than in other countries because it's considered that if you had a pre-existing condition and you catch coronavirus and die, your death is counted as being caused by your condition and not from the virus.

I think it mainly depends on who is being tested and who isn't. In Italy there are a lot of post-mortem-tests and people who had the virus but also other (lethal) conditions have been counted as corona-related deaths. In Germany it's different and a lot more younger (living) people have been tested.

The mortality rate differs a lot between countries. In Germany it's quite low, in Italy it's very high. In China there's a big difference between Hubei (where the virus originated) and the rest of the country, which leads scientists to believe that the virus might have mutated, and that there's a more aggressive and a less aggressive one. But it's all speculation and there isn't enough data.

The estimated number of unreported cases of corona infections is totally unknown too and probably varies a lot between countries. I think it's more about the missing knowledge about the virus and the insufficiently and differently exercised testing of people, rather than misinformation.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Snarky on 15 Mar 2020, 14:46
Thanks Laura, I'd forgotten that. Lots of differences in approach between countries, it will be very interesting to compare the outcomes. At the very least, it seems likely that we'll learn a lot from this outbreak about how to stem any future pandemics.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Slasher on 15 Mar 2020, 14:54
Let's see how many of us are still alive and healthy in 6 months..
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: cat on 15 Mar 2020, 14:55
It's totally crazy here right now, almost a complete lockdown. From tomorrow on, you are only allowed to go shopping food, or to work, or on a walk if you are alone and it is really necessary (how do you define if a walk is necessary?). All shops (except supermarkets) and restaurants will be closed.

Some measures I think are okay, like isolating infected or exposed people, closing schools, no gatherings with more than 100 people, forbidding visitors in hospitals etc. I also have no problem working from home. But not allowing to go outside?
They lock down kindergartens but provide some emergency care if parents need to work but ask to use this only if really necessary. I would have agreed with that, but at the same time they close all playgrounds, with police patrol and fines and stuff. What shall I do with my kid? I will not accept such grave restrictions of basic rights and send her to emergency kindergarten (as long as this is still possible).

Worst thing is: they now say this is for two weeks, but realistically, what will be different in two weeks? There will still be no medicine or vaccine so what then? Shut down life till the end of the year?

I am not afraid of the virus (even though I'm in a special health situation myself now), but I'm afraid of turning into police state and loss of basic rights.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: manannan on 15 Mar 2020, 15:39
Here in UAE gov sector we're all at home. People are taking it seriously, but we're far from the panicky scenes you see in some other countries. I hate to say it because I know these times are trying for so many people, but I have really been enjoying the down time so far. I'm up at 5:00 most mornings and getting loads of work done on private projects I thought I wouldn't have time to touch in 2020, plus also spending lots of time with my wife and son. We catch a Netflix family movie together every afternoon. The running joke is whether dad (me) can stay awake through the whole movie. (laugh) Dinner is always an experimental affair as we try to use up whatever ingredients we have to limit trips to the supermarket. I can't remember when we last had so much time to do pretty much nothing together. It's been great!

My wife's Chinese, and we've been told the kids in her area of China are going to be back at school soon, so...I hope the wave of relief will slowly be making its way westward over the coming months.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Mandle on 15 Mar 2020, 15:53
Worst thing is: they now say this is for two weeks, but realistically, what will be different in two weeks?

Here in Japan they are also saying "two weeks" for most closures, but also adding "unless an extension is needed"...

I think the government is doing a bit of psychology here where people won't panic too much if they think it's just two weeks, and then extend it two weeks at a time until people catch on and panic, and then it's National Guard time.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Cassiebsg on 15 Mar 2020, 16:53
You know they keep throwing this death statistics and all, but I would like them to also mention how many people died of "normal" flu in the same period.  (roll) That would be some thing I could relate to and maybe get people to panic less and realize that, covid-19 or no covid-19, we should just keep certain rules to minimize spreading sickness to those that are already weak.
The gov today announced that they "may" forbid people from going out... if they do they'll just give the hoarders a reason to keep hoarding... as they'll be "Ah! Glad I bought all that stuff when I did and not listen to the gov."  (roll)

I'm just glad it's not Ebola, to be honest, the way it's going it would wipe the planet of people in a flash.  8-0
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Kastchey on 15 Mar 2020, 18:01
This virus is far deadlier than flu already and we haven't seen much of it yet as it has barely started spreading. The only reason why flu's death toll, in raw numbers, is higher is because flu is everywhere and has been for ages.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Laura Hunt on 15 Mar 2020, 21:38
Worst thing is: they now say this is for two weeks, but realistically, what will be different in two weeks? There will still be no medicine or vaccine so what then? Shut down life till the end of the year?

No, there will not be a cure in two weeks, but that's not the point. The whole point of the two-week quarantine is to slow down its growth, stagger the contagions and try to avoid everybody getting infected at the exact same time so that health services don't collapse, which is what's happened in Madrid or the north of Italy, for example. If you stay home then you're no longer a vector for contagion, and the avalanche will turn into a steady trickle that will be way more manageable. That is the most urgent objective right now.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: fernewelten on 15 Mar 2020, 22:27
This Washington Post article (https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/) has some nice simulations that you can run in your own browser and that show the rationale behind the lockdown. There isn't any (mandatory) paywall, but Europeans must jump through some stupid hoops because of GDPR.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Snarky on 15 Mar 2020, 23:55
That's true, Laura, but as far as I can tell it's also true that it will take a lot more than two weeks for that strategy to work. (And I'm seeing some talk that we might be in for months of this.)

If you keep the restrictions in place for two weeks and successfully stem the epidemic so that only a relatively small number of people are infected, then lift them and let things go back to normal, you're back pretty much where you started, and the epidemic will just begin to peak again. It doesn't solve the peak overload problem unless you keep it up until the peak has passed (or at least until a significant proportion of the population have already had the virus and recovered, becoming immune)—and since the whole point of the strategy is to slow it down, it also means it will take longer for that point to come.

Of course, buying time is not something to sneeze at (pandemic pun!): it lets you ramp up treatment capacity (though unlike China, we probably can't build new hospitals in ten days), maybe learn about better treatments, and might mean that healthcare workers who were infected can return to work, immune. (It also gives the people who are going to die a few weeks more to live, which is nice.) But maybe more importantly, in two weeks we will know a lot more: maybe COVID-19 is not as bad as we thought after all, and we can relax these measures. Or maybe it becomes clear that it is really bad, and the public is more prepared to accept some tough choices.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: dactylopus on 16 Mar 2020, 05:13
I am not afraid of the virus (even though I'm in a special health situation myself now), but I'm afraid of turning into police state and loss of basic rights.
Same.  This is what really scares me.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Laura Hunt on 16 Mar 2020, 05:48
Snarky, I definitely agree that the two week mark is not a magic bullet, but like you say, it might be what we need to gather our wits and resources and be better prepared to tackle whatever's in store ahead. It's not that I'm not concerned that we'll have to learn to live with these restrictions for say, another month or two, but right now I think a unity of purpose and a willingness to accept these sacrifices is really important for overall morale and to avoid descending into chaos. That's basically my rationale for supporting the imposition of stricter measures at first, rather than going with a more relaxed approach. But in the end, it's going to be a waiting game and like a body undergoing chemotherapy for cancer, we need to hope that the virus cracks before we do, if that makes sense.

and might mean that healthcare workers who were infected can return to work, immune

Not just immune, but also in a better mental state... They're probably the ones having it worst of all right now and anything we can do to relieve their ordeal is incredibly important :(
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Vincent on 16 Mar 2020, 09:10
I heard some news recently that more than thirty thousand American soldiers landed in Europe for a military exercise, they said that they are here "to defend Europe from a possible invasion". All of this is supposed to be called "Defender Europe 20". Now although that Europe is still an area of contagion, they have seen themselves disembarking without protective masks or any kind of protections. That is, we must use protective masks and stay at home as much as possible while there are soldiers throughout Europe doing their exercise. I think they are referring to the supposedly imminent invasion of Russia in Europe? Although our planet is really going through catastrophic times these people are still here waging war on each other.

EDIT: Here's (https://ilmanifesto.it/30mila-soldati-dagli-usa-in-europa-senza-mascherina/) where I read such news, it's a popular newspaper in Italy. I wouldn't like to spread any political conspiracy theories so if a moderator feels like I am braking some forum rules please feel free to delete this post.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Khris on 16 Mar 2020, 10:11
Sounds real enough: https://www.eur.army.mil/DefenderEurope/

That they aren't wearing masks shouldn't be a problem as long as nobody of them has caught the virus.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Snarky on 16 Mar 2020, 10:26
Thanks for the link to the source, Vincent!

Well, this is a NATO exercise years in the planning that has been ongoing since February—it's going to be difficult to just cancel on a dime. (And BTW, this type of exercise is not in response to fears of "imminent invasion," but general strategic deterrence and training in the face of a perceived long-term threat.)

The US has announced (https://shape.nato.int/defender-europe/defender/newsroom/defendereurope-20-health-and-welfare-are-priority) that it will reduce the number of troops involved and are taking precautions to reduce risk of transmission. There are also reports that parts of the exercise involving troop movements have been canceled. I would be very surprised if the "free concerts" mentioned in the article go ahead, too. As countries' responses are evolving quickly, I would not assume that the plans from last week or the week before are still going to go ahead. Edit: If I were a military commander, I'd say that unexpected things and epidemics can happen in war, and you have to respond quickly. So turn that into a part of the exercise, a new success criterion: the goal is now to contain the spread of the disease while remaining operational.

One can of course debate whether the steps they're taking are enough given the situation, and be critical of military exercises in general (and it would almost be disappointing if il manifesto, quotidiano comunista didn't take that position), but it also appears that this narrative is being promoted in part by Russian propaganda outlets as a way to sow distrust of NATO.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Reiter on 16 Mar 2020, 10:49
I must pre-face this post with an apology, for it is quite long. Many of my reflections on the matter tumbled out as I sat down to write it.

Reporting from Sweden, I can say that it is quite odd. It is generally business as usual, but there are a lot less people out. There has been some scattered panic buying, but the shelves are filling back up at a re-assuring pace. The only thing I notice (besides the newspapers, of course) is a marked lack of customers at work.

Now, Swedish authorities seem to shadow Great Britain's herd immunity method, thus avoiding measures such as lock-downs and quarantines and closing borders. Schools remain mostly open, although under watch. This remain contentious, but it is done, we are assured, to ensure that disadvantaged children, with no-where else to go but school, are not left to fend for themselves, and to keep their parents at work. Everyone is, of course, urged to wash their hands, maintain a safe distance and self-isolate if necessary. Congragations exceeding five-hundred attendants are also forbidden; although sticking to 499 instead is considered rather poor form. Large sums of money are set aside to aid businesses affected by the outbreak. Indeed, a special forfeiture fee has been attatched, to ensure that the banks do spend this stimulus as intended.

This method is a very hard sell, as it were, in a world that seems at a state of total war upon the sickness. It most certainly was to me.

I thought it was merely complacency and inaction on the part of the authorities; people appointed to positions they are not fit for, who are more concerned to not threaten political sacred cows. 'They do not dare touch their precious open borders!', I sneered. 'They are obfuscating the numbers on purpose!', I huffed. 'Why is action anathema to these people, who are they working for!', I wondered.

I have since changed my mind. I have come to rather appreciate their stance, and their determination to keep everyday life in motion at almost any cost. In fact, I admire it. It is bold, calculated and cold as ice. It keeps a sense of proportion, that while it is a dangerous disease, it is not a death sentence. We are not at war. No one is being dug out of the rubble of a bombed house, no ships are going under in blazing oil slicks. Telephones work, water comes out of the tap, and that precious bog-roll is still rolling out of the factories.
There is, however, the question of honesty. What they are doing is taking a significant risks, partly for the sake of ideals. It is not the first time that Swedish authorities nor her political bodies do that, but it is greatly reflected now, in the Corona Scare.
To speak bluntly, people will die. Many of the likely victims are in geriatric and palliative care and thus already close to death, but quite a few who will die would have had more time in this world if measures against the epidemic had been stricter. While children that are known to be sick and weakly are no doubt quarantined as necessary by their parents, I am most certain that some children may become severely ill or die as a result of the decision to keep the schools open.
The authorities must consider these losses as acceptable. I wish they would dare say so. They seem prepared to do whatever it takes to maintain a sense of normality, and I admire that. However, they seem much less keen to taking responsibility for it. One shudders to imagine if they are wrong, if herd immunity will not work...

As for me? I remain vigilant, of course, for the sake of the infirm and the eldery as much as my own, but maintain an ordinary life. I have a war supply of provisions, but it remains untouched, and I doubt I will have to go hungry or cold or without tobacco. I put my life in God's hands every day, but I have done so for all my life, and I think that, on the whole, it is about as safe as it ever was.

Be safe, everyone. There will be a tomorrow, and we will make it through to see each other then.

EDIT: On the matter of the NATO exercise; Snarky is no doubt correct. It is difficult to cancel these appointments, and regular exercises are important. Indeed, maintaining the ordinary functions of the military in times of crisis is vital. An invasion or an attack, as utterly hypothetical such a beast is at the moment, would be quite catastrophic at a time like this. The military is one of those services that simply must work, epidemic or not, and I imagine the Pentagon would agree. Of course, soldiers are generally young and fit, and with the epidemic ongoing, I imagine that they are well supervised. Not to mention, having what appears to be a divison worth of troops prepared if civil order breaks down due to the epidemic would be very handy.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: cat on 16 Mar 2020, 12:31
Today a medical appointment I was supposed to have this week was cancelled because they had to close the practice at least for the week. I was promised that I will get a new appointment as soon as they can open again. However, the examination should be done within the next two weeks and it is not sure that they will open by then.
The crazy thing is, at the moment, there are less than 300 infected people in our area with a population of about 3.5 million. Of course, infections will increase within the next weeks - will they then be allowed to open the practice again and do my examination?  :-\

Complete panic here at the moment...
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: blur on 16 Mar 2020, 13:02
I wonder if there is an (AGS) adventure game that would fit the current reported events.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Snarky on 16 Mar 2020, 13:25
I've seen a lot of people talk about how Shardlight basically predicted this situation.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Danvzare on 16 Mar 2020, 19:31
Everything is fine in Britain. Thanks to Brexit, we're too plucky and independent to be affected by things happening in the real world.
I know right?
Everyone's been carrying on like normal here.
And it seems like the panic-buyers here think that supermarkets are the only stores that exist.
So it's been life as normal for me.

I am not afraid of the virus (even though I'm in a special health situation myself now), but I'm afraid of turning into police state and loss of basic rights.
Same.  This is what really scares me.
What scares me is the potential death of my loved ones. I know more than a few people who are almost certainly going to die if they catch it.
I'll be fine (at least, I should be), my grandparents though...  that scares me.  :~(
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Ponch on 16 Mar 2020, 20:22
This entire thing is just surreal. My city was hit by some tornadoes a few weeks ago. The schools were shut down for a few days as a result. We went back to work for all of three days before they closed the schools again due to pandemic panic. I'm into my second week off now. Fifteen minutes ago, the superintendent sent out a call to all the parents and employees saying that the schools are closed until April.

I've never seen anything like this. So strange.   :undecided:
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Click'd on 16 Mar 2020, 22:24
For me as a semi-professional shut-in everything is the same as always.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: PlayPretend on 16 Mar 2020, 22:48
Everything's locking down in NY state...just had the first confirmed case in my Onondaga County, and I'm nervous about my sore throat/exhaustion/headache, although it's probably stress based.

All my friends are equally freaked out and trying to stay calm and positive.  Mostly we're all just nervous about not being able to work and get paid.

The stores are spooky right now...so many things gone, Americans panic-buying toilet paper, canned goods, meds and water.  It feels...shameful?...when you shop, like even if you legitimately need something, you're depriving someone else.  People are scuttling around and not looking at each other.

On the plus side, like others said, more time to make AGS games! :)  And my DND nerd friends are planning to play by webcam since we can't get together.  I'm also exploring making a comedy podcast about a world repeatedly hit by apocalypses.

I hope you're all doing great, staying healthy and calm, and loving your neighbors from six feet or more.  :grin:
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Laura Hunt on 17 Mar 2020, 07:13
I'm also exploring making a comedy podcast about a world repeatedly hit by apocalypses.


https://thehardtimes.net/culture/cdc-warns-against-starting-podcasts-while-quarantined/

“We ask all Americans to stay vigilant and resist the temptation to unleash something on our population much, much worse than the virus itself.”

Sorry, couldn't help it :-D
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: WHAM on 17 Mar 2020, 09:38
Finland just declared its first real actions yesterday, and we're enacting some emergency laws in the near future, for sake of readiness.

We're not testing people for the disease, so Finland is not reporting any meaningful numbers to indicate spread of the Wuhan virus at this time. Only people with severe symptoms will be tested to confirm a preliminary diagnosis, and all non-essential care in hospitals is being postponed.

Some of the measures decided by the Government, effective as of today, active until 14th of April unless new guidelines are set before then:

- Early childhood education and care units and the pre-primary education organised in connection with them will be kept in operation.
- The premises of schools will be closed down.
- Public gatherings are limited to no more than ten persons.
- Preparations will be launched for the closure of Finland’s borders without delay in accordance with international obligations.
- Passenger transport to Finland will be suspended as soon as possible, with the exception of the return of Finnish citizens and persons residing in Finland.
- Finnish citizens and persons residing in Finland must not travel abroad. Finnish tourists abroad are advised to return to Finland immediately.
- Finns and permanent residents in Finland returning from abroad will be placed in quarantine-like conditions for two weeks.
- Persons returning from abroad must agree on the date of their return to work after a two-week period of absence together with their employer


As for myself, I bought 3+ weeks of foodstuffs so I can comfortably wait out the first phase of all this. Got a bunch of flour, dry yeast, sugar and salt so I can make more bread as the store bought stuff will go bad or run out.
We got instructed to work from home anyway, so I'm holed up in my home now.

...which is pretty much the normal state of affairs for me anyway.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: PlayPretend on 17 Mar 2020, 12:35
Lol, awesome. :) I already saw a couple spring up too, they're like mushrooms! 🍄☁️

I'm also exploring making a comedy podcast about a world repeatedly hit by apocalypses.


https://thehardtimes.net/culture/cdc-warns-against-starting-podcasts-while-quarantined/

“We ask all Americans to stay vigilant and resist the temptation to unleash something on our population much, much worse than the virus itself.”

Sorry, couldn't help it :-D
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Snarky on 17 Mar 2020, 14:49
Yeah, that's pretty funny. I particularly liked the end:

Quote
The CDC concluded the address by reminding citizens that they have their own podcast where they break down pandemics throughout the centuries, and to use the promo code “CDC” to get 15% off a purchase of Casper Mattresses.

Is there any podcast with sponsoring that isn't sponsored by Casper?
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: ManicMatt on 17 Mar 2020, 15:58
As you might have seen in my working in progress thread (If anyone actually reads my posts there other than CassieBSG lol) you'll see I feel like I have an unknown deadline to finish my game. If something happens to me, it's going to languish on my hard drive or get delayed who knows how long. If I lose a loved one, I'm not going to be wanting to work on it at all. And I really could do with some money coming in, no matter how small!
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Mandle on 18 Mar 2020, 08:23
I really don't get the logic behind this 500 people limit to gatherings.
If I go to an event with 100,000 people there are 500 people around me at any given time.
If I go to an event with 500 people there are 500 people around me at any given time.
There is pretty much no difference.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: ManicMatt on 18 Mar 2020, 09:24
And those 500 people have another 500 people around them, and those 500 people also have 500 people around them. And so on.

Imagine a forest on fire, and then imagine a small park on fire, with the trees getting set on fire and spreading. Which one is going to be worse?
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Ali on 18 Mar 2020, 09:59
Yes, the likelihood of infection might not increase for any one person, but for a group of 100,000 it's got to be about 200 times higher than 500?
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: MiteWiseacreLives! on 18 Mar 2020, 15:47
Stopped by to see if this thread had begun, worried for my old AGS friends. It’s good to read that most seem to be doing fine, very sad about Ghost late last year...
I live in Canada and things started getting a little panicky on Thursday the 12th. I work in a grocery store/supermarket and we got completely caught off guard by a wave of panic buying I’ve never seen in 23yrs doing this work, the shopping only intensified as the weekend went. We are asking everyone to work overtime, some of our team is falling sick (not to Corona though), I’ve been working 14hr days, it’s madness. People are all stocking up for an apocalypse and fear there is no supply, although we get deliveries every couple days we cannot keep up with the volume is all, perhaps in a week everyone will have there homes so jammed with groceries the can begin isolating. We finally got our first huge shipment (4x normal) yesterday, my feet hurt this morning  (laugh) the logistics are very strained, so the stock in the warehouses cannot get to the stores quickly enough. Our shelves are annihilated, but we will not be out of food by any stretch. The varied responses we get from customers regarding limiting purchases are very interesting, most understand when I say think of your neighbours, others flip out and describe some medical condition that requires more than 30 rolls of TP in three days  (wtf)
Schools are closed for the year in every province from what I understand, here you’re current grade is now your final grade. Gatherings of 50  are cancelled, any large event in the next three months is cancelled. Borders are closed to foreigners, except the US border which if closed would severely impact the supply chain etc. The PM is urging citizens to ‘social distance’ and stay home, not to buy more than you need and think of your neighbours (some people are...)
My wife and son will be off, I will have to work a lot in the near future as grocery stores are an essential service. Grocery store workers get exposed to so much sickness in normal times, part of me worries that my coworkers and I will all get sick as we overwork everyone and serve three times the normal customers! (We are cleaning and sanitizing as much as possible)
I hope all of you stay healthy, sorry for the wall of text. This is such a great and diverse community, it’s incredible to come here and read perspectives from around the world.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Mandle on 18 Mar 2020, 16:22
And those 500 people have another 500 people around them, and those 500 people also have 500 people around them. And so on.

Imagine a forest on fire, and then imagine a small park on fire, with the trees getting set on fire and spreading. Which one is going to be worse?

True... I was trying to say that we shouldn't have a ridiculous number like 500 at the limit. It should be much lower.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: ManicMatt on 18 Mar 2020, 16:43
Oh, I definitely agree with that, 500 is absurd.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Cassiebsg on 18 Mar 2020, 17:09
Well, they started with 1000... a couple days past and they decided it should be 100... a couple days passed and we're down to 10... soon we'll have to break the families up, in their own house if they're more than 10.  (roll)

Just been to the shop to buy a few groceries, now they have added markings on the floor for the cue lines, 2m apart, that's 4m2 for each costumer. Also the cashier had gloves and they added a plexy glass in front of the cashier. Oh, forgot to buy TP...  (laugh)
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: manannan on 18 Mar 2020, 18:00
Yeah, that's pretty funny. I particularly liked the end:

Quote
The CDC concluded the address by reminding citizens that they have their own podcast where they break down pandemics throughout the centuries, and to use the promo code “CDC” to get 15% off a purchase of Casper Mattresses.

Is there any podcast with sponsoring that isn't sponsored by Casper?

Yeah, no kidding ~ they seem to be  on every podcast these days. I wish they’d give it a rest. Deep, refreshing rest, in fact, the kind of rest you only get with a quality mattress like Casper.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Snarky on 18 Mar 2020, 21:10
Is anyone else starting to get jealous of the smug bastards who've already been through a mild case of corona, and are now free to run around anywhere, go to restaurants without worrying about a reservation, fly around the world cheaply, get coughed on by strangers, touch their face with abandon, lick doorknobs, do without toilet paper, turn 90, become immunocompromised and just generally have a blast without a care in the world?
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Cassiebsg on 18 Mar 2020, 21:19
Not really, cause they can't really do all that anyway. Everything is closed, they can't travel and all the restricting still apply to then as well, since they doubtfully get a doctor's attest saying they've had Corona and can't be free to do what they like.

But at least they, hopefully, don't have to worry about catching or infecting anyone with covid-19 any more and can claim they survived it... so a little jealous for that. Now they only have to worry about all the other tons of thousands sickness one can catch.  (laugh)
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Laura Hunt on 18 Mar 2020, 21:35
Is anyone else starting to get jealous of the smug bastards who've already been through a mild case of corona, and are now free to run around anywhere, go to restaurants without worrying about a reservation, fly around the world cheaply, get coughed on by strangers, touch their face with abandon, lick doorknobs, do without toilet paper, turn 90, become immunocompromised and just generally have a blast without a care in the world?

Hahaha well, I'm immunocompromised myself so I try not to lick doorknobs (try) or have people cough on me (too often), but otherwise yeah! Bastards! The Government should conscript these people into becoming like, shabbos goyim, but for folks in quarantine/isolation: running errands, getting medicines, shopping for groceries... THAT would wipe that smug smile from their faces, hah.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: LimpingFish on 19 Mar 2020, 00:39
Ireland's on the cusp of total lock-down. Everything that's non-essential will be off-limits. Pubs are already closed, theaters and cinemas too, with sporting events and concerts cancelled. Certain retail chains remain open, but this is expected to change fairly quickly. Social distancing is in effect, as well as precautions such as complimentary hand sanitizer and gloves are mandatory in some supermarkets and pharmacies. Public transport is also enforcing social distancing; being told a bus with ten people on it is full remains a strange experience.

Using these methods, we're hoping to slow infections to a manageable rate, rather than prevent infections altogether (which is nigh on impossible). We still haven't been hit with the worst of it, though, having under five hundred confirmed cases. This number is expected to skyrocket into the thousands by this time next week.

Strange times, indeed.

Stay safe, everyone! o/

...

Oh, and fuck those people stockpiling everything they can get their hands on. And double-fuck those profiteering bastards buying up hand sanitizer and reselling it at quadruple the price. :)
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Mandle on 19 Mar 2020, 13:08
I must admit, I got a chuckle out of the news story of the company that makes Corona beer coincidentally launching their new line of drinks "Corona Hard Cider", right at this time with the ad campaign showing cargo boats shipping the stocks all over the world with the tag-line "Coming ashore soon".

Talk about bad timing.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: KyriakosCH on 20 Mar 2020, 06:33
Near lock-down here too (Byzantine Empire/Greece).

It's no fun, but since I actually was ill just before the coronavirus took off, it is in a way convenient for me so as to heal, and not working on some stuff I had to be doing. Though I suppose I'd heal faster if not in the midst of a pandemic  :=
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: fernewelten on 20 Mar 2020, 10:53
Trouble is, you actually have to physically tie down each citizen into a chair or else they are going to gang up in Corona parties. Which is what has actually happened in Freiburg in Germany whilst only a few kilometres away in Mülhausen in France, ventilators are woefully lacking to fill the demand. So the city had to decree extensive curfews that are in force as of today.

You can't trust humanity to have a smithereen of common sense. Everyone would be able to enjoy a great sunny spring in nature if they wouldn't insist on ganging up when doing it.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: WHAM on 20 Mar 2020, 11:37
Workplace just sent us a questionnaire, asking if we need help shipping stuff from the office to our homes.
We've been given permissions to take desks, laptops, monitors and such to our homes so we have everything we might need to continue working from home.

Good show!
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: manannan on 20 Mar 2020, 13:19
Workplace just sent us a questionnaire, asking if we need help shipping stuff from the office to our homes.
We've been given permissions to take desks, laptops, monitors and such to our homes so we have everything we might need to continue working from home.

Good show!

Wow that's really cool of them. Ship your whole desk home? Sounds like they are banking on this lasting a few months.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: LimpingFish on 21 Mar 2020, 01:39
You can't trust humanity to have a smithereen of common sense.

Tell me about it! Police here have been raiding pubs that have been ignoring the government ban! Add this to the collage students arranging "Covid" parties, and it really makes you wonder whether we'd be better off just letting everything go to hell.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Cassiebsg on 21 Mar 2020, 08:14
The problem isn't letting everyone go to hell, the problem is that they aren't the group at risk. They would likely just get sick for a while and be fine afterwards, but in the time frame infect a hole bunch of people that will possibly die of it.

I say throw them in a cell and let them stay there for 2 weeks. I'm sure that would teach them something... and if not...well, then they would have 2 weeks to "party".  (laugh)
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Mandle on 22 Mar 2020, 04:09
Governments are being too weak. In many countries they have a ban on gatherings and unnecessary travel but no laws to enforce these bans. If there are no consequences then a lot of people are just going to do as they please, especially younger people who have little to fear, as Cassie just mentioned.

This is an important test-run for future, and much worse, pandemics so we should try to get it as correct as we can.

I guess we can also learn from horrible mistakes, but I'd rather not personally.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: KyriakosCH on 22 Mar 2020, 04:42
I think that in the UK they only closed pubs yesterday. That was meaningless - they should have been closed weeks ago. It's highly likely that the total population of infected there will rise faster than in Italy!

This is far dumber, though:

Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Cassiebsg on 22 Mar 2020, 09:27
Over here they did create fines, if you gather more than 10 you can get a fine for 1500dkk per person, if a business stays open even though they're ordered to stay close, it's 5000dkk fine.
I say these fines aren't high enough, specially for shops.

So far, they have closed and fine one pub, one hair saloon and one vapor coffee shop... in the vapor (sp?) shop they also fined 23 people that were in there...  :-\
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Slasher on 22 Mar 2020, 10:22
This is nothing compared to what is coming....

Two whistle blowers silenced...

Be vigilant... and above all, become aware of the real agenda...
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Khris on 22 Mar 2020, 10:27
I already have boomer clients of mine talking like that, but yes slasher, please tell us in detail about what's coming. Be specific, or shut up.

The only good thing about talking out of your ass like that is that it will all fall completely apart in a few months when we're back at the regular hellworld. (But people like you will obviously have learned nothing.)

Edit: and get off Facebook!
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Slasher on 22 Mar 2020, 10:33
I hope you are right Khris...

I want to be around in 6 months...

Until then everyone has there own ideas based around the media...and other people's anxiety.

Until the truth finally comes out we may be talking out of our arses (me included)



Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Laura Hunt on 22 Mar 2020, 11:09
This is nothing compared to what is coming....

Two whistle blowers silenced...

Be vigilant... and above all, become aware of the real agenda...

I just rolled my eyes so hard that I can see the inside of my head.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: KyriakosCH on 22 Mar 2020, 11:11
Few scientists seem to think it will all die out in the (northern hemisphere) hot season - eg in a couple of months. But if it doesn't... things will start collapsing anyway.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Matti on 22 Mar 2020, 11:30
Until the truth finally comes out we may be talking out of our arses (me included)

The truth ist that the real name is CORVID-19, short for CORVIDAE-19 and that it's not a virus, but a gang of 19 crows!
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: KyriakosCH on 22 Mar 2020, 11:33
Until the truth finally comes out we may be talking out of our arses (me included)

The truth ist that the real name is CORVID-19, short for CORVIDAE-19 and that it's not a virus, but a gang of 19 crows!

Hahaha. Korax flegm.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: PlayPretend on 22 Mar 2020, 12:34
In upstate NY, so my job hours got slashed in half but at least I'm still allowed to work those few. :/ We're in "PAUSE", which is basically fancy rewording to avoid the fact that they promised repeatedly not to give a shelter in place order.  But we're now world leader in the virus, so duh, locking down makes sense.

On the plus side, a lot of extra time to finish my MAGS!
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Cassiebsg on 22 Mar 2020, 13:00
Well, they have that theory yes, but then we wouldn't be seeing a problem in hot areas.   (wtf)

I think, or hope for, that after Easter we might go back to a bit normality, but still be encouraged to hold social distancing and caution as much as possible. But maybe I'm wrong and we're in for a few more months of this.  8-0
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Retro Wolf on 22 Mar 2020, 13:22
Been gardening and playing with the kids, experimenting with inkscape too. School decided to close, they've gave us homework and some online stuff. Don't see how you can substitute 5 hours of professional teaching a day but we'll do our best.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Cassiebsg on 22 Mar 2020, 14:32
Yeah, we're also getting some homework the teachers send for the day/week... guess some is still better than non.
Some schools (and/or higher grades?) though, have implemented video-conference classes and the kids are attending classes that way.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: HanaIndiana on 22 Mar 2020, 18:01
I'm in the US (Oregon state), and in our state just about everything is locked down. You can get groceries, and medicine, and restaurants can sell food, but only curb-side takeout or delivery. We even have weed delivery which.. I never thought I'd live to see the day.  :-D It's okay to go outside, as long as you distance yourself from others.
 But it differs state to state, until we get a national law I guess.

I feel really scared for people who can't work.. I can't imagine the stress. I think, at least in the US, it's going to get worse for a couple months, and lockdowns will probably stay through summer. We don't have nearly enough testing yet, but maybe in a month the testing will ramp up. A lot of people still don't think it's a problem.

Oregon has had about 4 deaths, but not enough testing. Our governor is building two makeshift field hospitals, just in case. Which frankly makes me happy because it says she is taking it seriously. I don't want people to die, especially if they could have been saved if enough beds were available. The world has survived these things before, but this is not a ride anyone wants to be on. Stay safe everyone.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: fernewelten on 22 Mar 2020, 21:57
Two whistle blowers silenced...

You don't need a whistleblower to get to the conclusion that the future is in peril of becoming very dire, very soon. You only need a pocket calculator.

Let's do this for Germany (where I'm currently based).

Day by day for more than a week or so, our confirmed Corona cases have increased to the tune of 25 % to 33 %. Per day. So a daily increase rate of ~30 % is what we actually seem to be able to achieve in reality and practice. Let's use that number.

10 days ago, there were only 7 % (that is, 1.3 to the power of -10) of the cases we have now. Experts say that those who need ventilators need them for around 10 days. So we can only rely on 7 % of the ventilators to be re-usable as the patients of 10 days ago now recover or die. And this extends into the future for the people that start needing the ventilators today. For all intents and purposes, we'll need all our ventilators at the same time. With that increase rate of ~30 %, we are failing completely to "flatten the curve".

Now let's check our capacity. We've got around 15,000 intensive care beds with ventilators that can be reserved for Corona. (There are 28,000 intensive care beds in Germany overall, but we can't reserve them all because others need them too, and not all the beds have a ventilator)  Experts say that about 1 Corona case out of 20 needs a ventilator, so we've got capacity for 300,000 Corona cases. That's it.

Two days ago, we passed the 5-digit mark and had 10,000 "confirmed" Corona cases in Germany.  Start then and repeatedly multiply by 1.3.
Just considering the "confirmed" cases we'll reach capacity in only eleven days. After that, it's triage time.

But the actual number or Corona patients will be higher than the "confirmed" illnesses: Our test capacity is limited (by manpower, not by money). That's why we only test those with symptoms that have come into contact with Corona patients or have been in risk areas. We can't "confirm" any of the cases that we don't test, so there's bound to be a hefty dark figure of Corona cases that we don't know about.

Go figure ....
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Cassiebsg on 22 Mar 2020, 22:53
Yes, but with the measures at hand, the chances are that on 11 days the number of people needing hospital care and ventilators will start dropping as all the closing measures, quarantine and social distance will start taking effect, but yes, it will still suck for those that do get sick during the peak as they may die while it could have been avoided otherwise.  :~(

Over here they have stopped testing people with non serious symptoms for like a week ago, and thrusday/friday medical personnel as well, unless they display serious symptoms... they are simply running out of test kits, and thus are saving them for the critic patients. So exactly what is the number of infected people in Denmark is a very big question mark. But a number I would like to see, but that no news bulletins seem to care to report, is of those infected how many have now recovered.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: LimpingFish on 23 Mar 2020, 00:24
McDonalds is closing it's doors here (https://www.breakingnews.ie/business/mcdonalds-to-close-all-irish-restaurants-989467.html). Truly a sign of end times...


Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Matti on 23 Mar 2020, 00:29
But a number I would like to see, but that no news bulletins seem to care to report, is of those infected how many have now recovered.

According to german news (https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/coronavirus-karte-101.html) almost 98.000 people recovered (marked in green, "genesene Patienten").
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: KyriakosCH on 23 Mar 2020, 00:41
It is interesting that Germany has so few deaths reported as Coronavirus caused, when compared to other countries with similar numbers of cases. Any explanation?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Eg, Germany having almost 25000 cases, but only 94 deaths, when Spain (28000 cases), France (16000) and USA (32000) have hundreds or thousands of dead.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Stupot on 23 Mar 2020, 03:04
The number of people being tested can dramatically affect the ratio. If you’re only testing critical cases you’re going to end up with a higher proportion of deaths but if you’re testing as many people as possible you’re going to catch a lot more mild cases and the proportion of deaths will be lower.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: kconan on 23 Mar 2020, 04:26
  The only person I know who has it, and is recovering, is in Germany.  He says it is like a moderately severe flu, and while he's resting a lot he is far from bedridden - within the confines of his house.

  Where I am these days (U.S. East Coast) things are a little weird of course, but people are being good at distancing and the stores aren't too ravaged outside of TP.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: KyriakosCH on 23 Mar 2020, 06:25
The number of people being tested can dramatically affect the ratio. If you’re only testing critical cases you’re going to end up with a higher proportion of deaths but if you’re testing as many people as possible you’re going to catch a lot more mild cases and the proportion of deaths will be lower.

Seems likely, yes - also going by the number of those reported as "critical" there.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Laura Hunt on 23 Mar 2020, 07:00
The number of people being tested can dramatically affect the ratio. If you’re only testing critical cases you’re going to end up with a higher proportion of deaths but if you’re testing as many people as possible you’re going to catch a lot more mild cases and the proportion of deaths will be lower.

Seems likely, yes - also going by the number of those reported as "critical" there.


It's also lower if you don't implement a strict nation-wide protocol for post-mortem testing (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/22/germany-low-coronavirus-mortality-rate-puzzles-experts).

btw, we're finally on lockdown. Took them long enough...
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Snarky on 23 Mar 2020, 07:13
And of course, the number of tests done, and the criteria for who gets tested, greatly affects the number of infections found, so we should be careful with calculations such as fernewelten's: an apparent explosion in cases could be a reflection of testing being ramped up, while a supposedly low rate could be because a lack of testing (or, in some cases, unreliable or insensitive tests). There are a lot of interesting data wrinkles for stats geeks to dig their teeth into.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: KyriakosCH on 23 Mar 2020, 07:19
The number of people being tested can dramatically affect the ratio. If you’re only testing critical cases you’re going to end up with a higher proportion of deaths but if you’re testing as many people as possible you’re going to catch a lot more mild cases and the proportion of deaths will be lower.

Seems likely, yes - also going by the number of those reported as "critical" there.


It's also lower if you don't implement a strict nation-wide protocol for post-mortem testing (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/22/germany-low-coronavirus-mortality-rate-puzzles-experts).

btw, we're finally on lockdown. Took them long enough...


Yes, I heard something about that too. Would also help explain the strange difference.

Btw, since today we are on something like "official" house confinement mode. I doubt the system they set up with "get authorization by mobile text" is meant to do much other than dissuade the older people from leaving their house - we shall see. Also, seems unrealistic to have police check your id - handing it over when there is a virus doesn't seem very logical.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Mandle on 23 Mar 2020, 13:49
And of course, the number of tests done, and the criteria for who gets tested, greatly affects the number of infections found, so we should be careful with calculations such as fernewelten's: an apparent explosion in cases could be a reflection of testing being ramped up, while a supposedly low rate could be because a lack of testing (or, in some cases, unreliable or insensitive tests). There are a lot of interesting data wrinkles for stats geeks to dig their teeth into.

THIS!!!
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Ali on 23 Mar 2020, 14:18
Yeah, I've seen states in the US reporting a number of deaths that's very close to the number of cases, which is extremely unlikely and must reflect the fact that people are only being tested if they're in a bad condition.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Domino on 23 Mar 2020, 20:33
I went from a full time job to a no time job. I live in New York State and had to file for unemployment. Had this job as an engraver for 20 years. This really sucks.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: KyriakosCH on 24 Mar 2020, 01:24
^That sucks. I hope you find a new job soon :/

I mostly get money (these days) from my online literature seminar, so thankfully that is at the moment ok. But if this goes on for months it will be killed, obviously.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Stupot on 24 Mar 2020, 03:27
Damn. Sorry to hear that, Domino. Hope you get something new soon.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Mandle on 24 Mar 2020, 05:17
The other day I was imagining what it's going to be like about halfway through this thing, when half the people who are gonna get it have already had it and the other half are still terrified of getting it.

We are going to have two distinctly separate groups of people in the same society together. I wonder if we will see prejudice between these groups. Will "Immunies" or whatever we end up dubbing them, be treated with fear and suspicion by "Not-Yetters" because they might have an image of not being as careful anymore about their cleanliness?

I wonder if bars and cafes etc. will start putting signs out like "Welcome, but only if you've had it."

Things like that. We will see I suppose.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: KyriakosCH on 24 Mar 2020, 06:19
The other day I was imagining what it's going to be like about halfway through this thing, when half the people who are gonna get it have already had it and the other half are still terrified of getting it.

We are going to have two distinctly separate groups of people in the same society together. I wonder if we will see prejudice between these groups. Will "Immunies" or whatever we end up dubbing them, be treated with fear and suspicion by "Not-Yetters" because they might have an image of not being as careful anymore about their cleanliness?

I wonder if bars and cafes etc. will start putting signs out like "Welcome, but only if you've had it."

Things like that. We will see I suppose.

Afaik it's not yet entirely known if one can get some new form back (ie if this mutates fast enough, while remaining lethal), so two groups wouldn't make sense in such a case.
What alarms me is how more draconian measures are taken regarding this, when compared to the first coronavirus or other such illnesses.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Mandle on 24 Mar 2020, 08:28
Afaik it's not yet entirely known if one can get some new form back (ie if this mutates fast enough, while remaining lethal), so two groups wouldn't make sense in such a case.

Yeah, sorry, I meant if that turns out to be the case.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: manannan on 25 Mar 2020, 10:45
I actually had a dream last night that included turning people down when they tried to shake my hand.  :-\
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Babar on 25 Mar 2020, 13:20
I actually had a dream last night that included turning people down when they tried to shake my hand.  :-\
Shouldn't be a dream at this point  :-D
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: KyriakosCH on 25 Mar 2020, 14:11
I actually had a dream last night that included turning people down when they tried to shake my hand.  :-\

Dreams are said to either be expressing a fear or a desire. I suppose it wasn't a desire  :=
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Crimson Wizard on 25 Mar 2020, 15:14
I just want to stop for a moment and express the relief, finally my co-workers are turning down the habit of doing a handshake each time someone arrives to the office. No longer I have to be distracted by 10+ people wanting to shake my hand while I am trying to focus on my code.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: LameNick on 25 Mar 2020, 15:42
Today our brilliant newly elected government decided they’re going to introduce legislation to allow tracking the movement of all citizens. Its not even a heightened state of emergency thing, it just could potentially help them be more effective with mapping progression of the virus. This is a country of 5 m with 219 positive cases, I think the severity of the situation is nowhere near what would excuse stripping us of most basic liberties. I’m still stunned.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Mandle on 25 Mar 2020, 15:49
I just want to stop for a moment and express the relief, finally my co-workers are turning down the habit of doing a handshake each time someone arrives to the office. No longer I have to be distracted by 10+ people wanting to shake my hand while I am trying to focus on my code.

Did people do that? Did you have to shake hands with people you worked with every day, every day?

I'm honestly asking because I have been here in Japan over half my life and that is just not a thing we do here. I can't remember ever shaking hands with my fellow workers even when I worked at a hotel back in Australia except when I met them the first time.

Or do you mean people you haven't met before?

EDIT: I reread your post and now think you might have meant new clients and the like. Sorry for the misunderstanding.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Crimson Wizard on 25 Mar 2020, 16:02
I just want to stop for a moment and express the relief, finally my co-workers are turning down the habit of doing a handshake each time someone arrives to the office. No longer I have to be distracted by 10+ people wanting to shake my hand while I am trying to focus on my code.

Did people do that? Did you have to shake hands with people you worked with every day, every day?

<...>

EDIT: I reread your post and now think you might have meant new clients and the like. Sorry for the misunderstanding.

No, I mean exactly the people who work there everyday. They shake hands on arrival, and shake hands again when going home. Drives me mad.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: manannan on 25 Mar 2020, 16:33
I just want to stop for a moment and express the relief, finally my co-workers are turning down the habit of doing a handshake each time someone arrives to the office. No longer I have to be distracted by 10+ people wanting to shake my hand while I am trying to focus on my code.

Did people do that? Did you have to shake hands with people you worked with every day, every day?

<...>

EDIT: I reread your post and now think you might have meant new clients and the like. Sorry for the misunderstanding.

No, I mean exactly the people who work there everyday. They shake hands on arrival, and shake hands again when going home. Drives me mad.

It's a cultural thing here (UAE), so I'm also shaking everyone's hand in the morning because that's courteous here, but...aren't you in the UK? What's up with that?
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Crimson Wizard on 25 Mar 2020, 16:35
No, I am not in UK, and ... does not matter.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Slasher on 25 Mar 2020, 16:46
Prince Charles (uk) has tested positive for coronavirus.

Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Joseph DiPerla on 25 Mar 2020, 18:06
I didn't want to post this in it's own thread, but I felt it was important to post. I posted it in other sites and called the article/post; Reject a healthcare worker, reject hope. I Also called it at times "Reject a nurse, reject your hope".

Please read:

Last week I began my week being told that my hours would be reduced at work as a result of the Coronavirus. By Friday, 4 days later, I was furloughed before the reduced hours began as a result of the state I live in shutting down non-essential businesses.

My sister in law is a healthcare worker as well. She unknowingly contracted Coronavirus. Now her husband, my brother also has it. And my my mom.

During all this time, while we are dealing with the same stress that everyone in the world is probably facing(Such as having my two little girls at home home-schooling), my wife who happens to be a registered nurse in an hospital emergency room is working tirelessly to take care of patients with limited supplies and excessive patients. She had already exposed herself to multiple dangers at her hospital as a healthcare worker such as disease(Other than Covid-19), dangerous Psych patients that inappropriately touch her and threaten her, patients who are just plain old jerks that have no patience for wait time and that berate and accuse my wife constantly. Remember that car that crashed into the ER two years ago intentionally and then the person setting himself on fire? Well, that is where my wife works.. Right behind those same doors. You know your 8, 9 or 10 hour shift that you work at your office or job, well my wife works a 12 hour shift. If that wasn't enough... despite my wife having a to be exposed to this sickness, to this hatred and lack of appreciation, my wife also has the same 5 days of sick time that all of us get and God help her if she happens to be sick just one more day over that time period. She is bound by HIPPA laws, constantly threatened to be sued... It is not a glorious job.

Would you like to know what my wife has to encounter now with this Coronavirus? Imagine a fire fighter going in to a burning building but only having a face mask and fire hose. Not much protection because of the lack of supplies and face masks or coverings. You know what risks she takes? Like a fireman who puts himself at risk of death, my wife puts herself at risk of death too. From patients and illness. My wife caught both Flu A and Flu B this year from taking care of two different patients that forgot to tell her they had the flu. Yet, do you know one difference between a firefighter and a nurse? A firefighter does not bring back the fire to his home. My wife can and does at times.

Do you know what my two little daughters and I go through every day that my wife goes to work? We wait and hope that she comes home safe and that some patient who daily says he will shoot up the ER or stab her, etc.. Actually fails to fulfil that desire. You know what else? We have to wonder what we are going to catch this week or next week. With this Coronavirus my wife has practiced social distancing from us all and that means that I or my daughters haven't been able to properly hug, snuggle, hold or kiss my wife in weeks. My wife hasn't been able to visit her very sick dad who has Parkinsons disease or even be in the same room with her own 75 year old mother.

But you know the worst thing about all of this? Besides that my wife's husband(me) lost his job and she now has to be the sole provider until this all settles down, besides the fact that she exposes herself to all this and has to be apart from all of us and friends because she is a nurse??? It is the fact that my wife is not allowed to pump gas at a gas station without being harrassed, threatened or assaulted because she is recognized as a healthcare worker. Or she can't go into a store to get necessities that we as a family need because they know she is a nurse. What is really sad is that this has been happening to a large percentage of nurses and healthcare workers worldwide.

You know what? If you have done this to a healthcare worker, please realize something: You are not just a coward. You see, it is OK to be afraid. But It's NOT OK for your fear, though, to treat others badly. No, you instead are a jerk. You are denying giving people what they need just for risking their lives to help you. Next time, before you do something like that ever again, just think: It may be you with Coronavirus walking into a hospital possibly infecting the staff and other patients and... my wife.

If you are a healthcare worker, do not stand for this. Walk out of the store or gas station. Call the police. Shame the business on Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter, Reddit, Instagram and Nextdoor.com and even report to your local news station. Do not stand for that injustice. It is OK to be afraid. It is even to an extent OK to be a coward. But it is not OK to turn people away when they are in need and it is far worse to assault them because you "Think" they are infected. Please Pass this message on!
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: KyriakosCH on 25 Mar 2020, 20:02
Prince Charles (uk) has tested positive for coronavirus.



If prince Andrew also has it, young people are at risk  :=
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Mandle on 26 Mar 2020, 00:43
Yet, do you know one difference between a firefighter and a nurse? A firefighter does not bring back the fire to his home.

Powerful words!
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Stupot on 26 Mar 2020, 02:43
@Joseph DiPerla - That’s a tough situation to be in, man. I’m sure your family will all pull through this. I have to admit it’s the first Ive heard about healthcare workers being mistreated because people are scared they have the virus. It’s illogical. Anyone Could have it. It’s up to individuals to take precautions and wash their hands etc, not have a go at nurses who are the real soldiers in this war. Your wife is a hero.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: MiteWiseacreLives! on 26 Mar 2020, 06:01
+1 to Stupot
Nurses should be treated like heroes, especially now.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Slasher on 26 Mar 2020, 09:03
Joseph DiPerla

Many people act out of character when in a crises... Even so, they should show some respect.... One day they may need help from the people they mistreated..
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Mouth for war on 26 Mar 2020, 11:07
@joseph, That was quite an emotional read. Sometimes you must stop and see the individual. I remember a few years ago when they were doing road construction work, there was a picture of a man, and maybe there was a child in the picture too but i fail to remember that. There was a text underneath the man's face "Drive carefully, my dad works here" to me at least it had a huge impact although i'm not a lunatic in trafic. I didn't see construction workers anymore. I saw people's  sons,brothers and fathers. People really need to think about that when they want to act out against someone. I hope you and your family will be safe :-) and to everyone else here of course as well. Stay safe!
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: fernewelten on 26 Mar 2020, 15:35
No, I am not in UK, and ... does not matter.

Once, the British were very famous in the whole world for NOT doing any shake-hands ever. Except for the very first time they met, and that would be a very formal occasion where they went, "How do you do. – How do you do."

Times have changed, of course, but the concept of British workers constantly shaking hands is be still surprising. That was the reason for the question, I suppose.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Cassiebsg on 26 Mar 2020, 17:05
Joseph that sucks.   :~(

It's not right to be blaming health care when they're doing everything humanly possible to help others at their own health risk! In fact they're the ones less likely to catch the virus, since they know and take every precaution against catching any sickness. They're trained to know what to do and how to keep clean. Unlike those idiots, who probably are the same thinking their immune and don't need to take precautions... 
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: manannan on 27 Mar 2020, 10:02
@Joseph DiPerla - That’s a tough situation to be in, man. I’m sure your family will all pull through this. I have to admit it’s the first Ive heard about healthcare workers being mistreated because people are scared they have the virus. It’s illogical. Anyone Could have it. It’s up to individuals to take precautions and wash their hands etc, not have a go at nurses who are the real soldiers in this war. Your wife is a hero.

I also haven't heard of healthcare workers being ostracised in this way. Reddit is expressing overwhelming praise for not only healthcare workers but also sanitation workers. Very sorry to hear your family is going through this, Joseph.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: dactylopus on 28 Mar 2020, 03:59
Unfortunately, I work in the television industry and my job is considered essential (although I can attest that my presence is not required for these television stations to continue to broadcast news and other important messaging).  I will have to continue going to work and putting myself at risk despite the counties in which I live and work issuing stay-at-home / shelter-in-place orders this weekend.
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: manannan on 28 Mar 2020, 04:42
Unfortunately, I work in the television industry and my job is considered essential (although I can attest that my presence is not required for these television stations to continue to broadcast news and other important messaging).  I will have to continue going to work and putting myself at risk despite the counties in which I live and work issuing stay-at-home / shelter-in-place orders this weekend.

Are you and other workers wearing protective gear like gloves and face masks?
Title: Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
Post by: Slasher on 28 Mar 2020, 17:24
I just had some guy knock my door and ask if i was ok and if i needed anything..

Some nice people about..  (nod)