Author Topic: Trumpmageddon  (Read 84397 times)

Jack

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Re: Trumpmageddon
« Reply #460 on: 06 Nov 2020, 17:59 »
I don't expect Trump to concede, but I think there'll be general agreement that Biden has won the election, even among Republicans (even as some rave about fraud), and he'll find himself isolated.

Spoiler: ShowHide


I think there's a good chance they are charging you up in a frenzy of victory over "muh drumpf evil nazi cheeto", and will flip the result back after some time. This will ensure the most amount of damage.

Snarky

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Re: Trumpmageddon
« Reply #461 on: 06 Nov 2020, 18:50 »
Ah yes. "They."

The evil cabal that secretly runs the world, and which—for example—determines not just the final result of the vote count (which is being tallied up across hundreds if not thousands of local sites all over America, under observation by representatives of both parties), but how it will progress hour-by-hour.

Who are we talking here, specifically? Bill Gates? George Soros? Anthony Fauci? Tom Hanks?

Anyway, I do appreciate whenever these conspiracy theories produce actual testable predictions. Not that I expect it will make a difference when proven false.

Spoiler: ShowHide
To be clear, as I already said, Arizona and Georgia are very close, and could conceivably flip in a recount. If Pennsylvania or some other state that would change the outcome of the election does, that would be sensational.


(Edit: typo)
« Last Edit: 06 Nov 2020, 18:54 by Snarky »

Jack

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Re: Trumpmageddon
« Reply #462 on: 06 Nov 2020, 19:02 »
It's a possibility, but the one I consider most likely. Like I said it would cause the most damage. What if those ballots that were found got lost again?

Harris might win it. I think she's merely insurance, I could be wrong. Trump would be lucky to get out now.

eri0o

Re: Trumpmageddon
« Reply #463 on: 06 Nov 2020, 20:41 »
About the election, it's a bit too soon but I agree with Jack that Trump would be lucky to get out now.

The Democrats I think intend for Biden to step out and let Kamala in, and my guess is once she becomes president she will feel pressured to work with both Democrats and Republican interests in mind to keep the word of not having a partisan agenda. Trump thrives in opposition and it's hard to be opposition when you are the one in power. Still, Trump would have won if he did not had decided to shoot his own foot by dismissing the mail in ballots. I did not really understood that strategy.

The Republicans didn't appear to have a plan set for next 4 years, so while the new government works recovering the economy (with the Republicans in senate maintaining the government in check) they will figure out a strategy for what to do in 4 years to win the election. On the other hand the Democrats will not be able to plan forward but will have the machine in hands, and owning the machine is powerful for gathering votes. On the next 4 years, every misstep will fuel the Republican come back in 2024. Trump will probably not be around by then, so we can expect it will be a different narrative.

Overall, I just hope for some stability in US so we can have stability here.

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Re: Trumpmageddon
« Reply #464 on: 07 Nov 2020, 10:06 »
On the next 4 years, every misstep will fuel the Republican come back in 2024. Trump will probably not be around by then, so we can expect it will be a different narrative.

Both Trump and Biden will officially be too old in 2024 to run again. I'm not sure if this rule applies to a standing president though, but Trump is done if/when he loses this one.

Snarky

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Re: Trumpmageddon
« Reply #465 on: 07 Nov 2020, 11:00 »
The Democrats I think intend for Biden to step out and let Kamala in

What Democrats? And how are they planning to make this happen?

Biden has wanted to be president since he was a kid. As long as he's capable of doing the job—and Trump has not set the "capable" bar very high—he's not going to step down willingly. And trying to force him out against his will would be an ugly process that would doom their candidate in the next election and probably wouldn't work anyway. (See all the cockamamie schemes proposed by Never-Trumper conservatives, which never went anywhere for very obvious reasons.)

Of course, he is pretty damn old, so it's certainly possible that Harris will have to step in at some point. (And I suppose there is a scenario where he declines to run for reelection and steps down around early 2024 so that Harris can campaign as the incumbent, but I think his ego will resist that pretty fiercely.)

and my guess is once she becomes president she will feel pressured to work with both Democrats and Republican interests in mind to keep the word of not having a partisan agenda.

Obama also campaigned on "bringing the US together," and he tried to work with Republicans on bipartisan legislation. The GOP would have none of it, with their focus ensuring he would be a one-term president, doing all they could to sabotage the economic recovery and stop healthcare reform in order to keep him from having accomplishments to point to.

Whether Biden/Harris genuinely believe they can work with Republicans or just thought it would play well on the campaign trail, reality is going to hit hard. Get ready for at least two years of gridlock.

Trump thrives in opposition and it's hard to be opposition when you are the one in power.

Yes. What Trump will do once out of office (or, indeed, in the lame-duck period until the inauguration), and the extent to which his cult of personality will endure remains in my view the biggest wildcard of the next four years.

Still, Trump would have won if he did not had decided to shoot his own foot by dismissing the mail in ballots. I did not really understood that strategy.

Eh, maybe. But there's not really any evidence that it significantly depressed overall turnout for his supporters (which ended up higher than anticipated): they just showed up on election day instead. If there had been major issues with election-day voting that left people unable to cast their vote you could've argued that his strategy backfired, but that didn't happen. (Overall, the actual election process went off better than expected.)

The Republicans didn't appear to have a plan set for next 4 years

Their party program was literally just "support Donald Trump, demonize the media, own the libs!"

so while the new government works recovering the economy (with the Republicans in senate maintaining the government in check)

It's not 100% determined that Republicans will hold the Senate, though that's clearly the most likely outcome. I also think "maintaining the government in check" is a pretty generous way to describe "sabotage everything."

they will figure out a strategy for what to do in 4 years to win the election. On the other hand the Democrats will not be able to plan forward but will have the machine in hands, and owning the machine is powerful for gathering votes.

First there are the midterms in two years, which could change the situation in Congress. I'm also not convinced that holding the presidency gives any great advantage for "gathering votes" (unless you're prepared to blatantly violate any number of laws and corrupt the office, the way the Trump administration did), except for giving your candidate more credibility as the incumbent. Which will only be a factor if Biden runs again, or Harris actually takes over at some point in the term.

Both Trump and Biden will officially be too old in 2024 to run again. I'm not sure if this rule applies to a standing president though, but Trump is done if/when he loses this one.

I'm not sure whether you were speaking literally, but to be clear: there is no upper age limit on presidential candidates. So there's nothing keeping either of them from running again in 2024, as long as they're alive and people are willing to vote for them.

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Re: Trumpmageddon
« Reply #466 on: 07 Nov 2020, 11:35 »
Both Trump and Biden will officially be too old in 2024 to run again. I'm not sure if this rule applies to a standing president though, but Trump is done if/when he loses this one.

I'm not sure whether you were speaking literally, but to be clear: there is no upper age limit on presidential candidates. So there's nothing keeping either of them from running again in 2024, as long as they're alive and people are willing to vote for them.

Yeah, I guess I misheard or misinterpreted something someone said.

Jack

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Re: Trumpmageddon
« Reply #467 on: 07 Nov 2020, 13:32 »
The Democrats I think intend for Biden to step out and let Kamala in

What Democrats? And how are they planning to make this happen?

Spoiler: ShowHide


But seriously, it seems that you see nothing odd about the democrats choosing a borderline unelectable candidate like Biden, over others that probably could have beat Trump, like Sanders or Gabbard. But here is a message from Earth: he was a terrible choice for a candidate, and the only way he makes sense as a choice is to be a stand-in for someone who can't be legally elected to that office.

As for how, he will probably bow out for health reasons, or just die. It would be quite a believable story if it weren't so utterly convenient.

Snarky

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Re: Trumpmageddon
« Reply #468 on: 07 Nov 2020, 16:26 »
Right, Hillary Clinton is planning to assassinate Joe Biden so that Kamala Harris can be a puppet for Barack Obama. (roll)
(We're quickly headed towards the sort of conspiracy mongering that is banned on this forum.)

I actually wrote up a whole response, but on reflection, I think it's better not to engage.

And just as I post this, I get an update that CNN has called the election for Biden. Took a bit longer than I expected, but there it is.
« Last Edit: 07 Nov 2020, 16:28 by Snarky »

Danvzare

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Re: Trumpmageddon
« Reply #469 on: 07 Nov 2020, 16:37 »
Right, Hillary Clinton is planning to assassinate Joe Biden so that Kamala Harris can be a puppet for Barack Obama. (roll)
Wouldn't it make more sense to just... wait.  :-\
(We're not exactly talking about someone who is young, fit, and healthy here.)

Re: Trumpmageddon
« Reply #470 on: 07 Nov 2020, 16:55 »
But seriously, it seems that you see nothing odd about the democrats choosing a borderline unelectable candidate like Biden, over others that probably could have beat Trump, like Sanders or Gabbard. But here is a message from Earth: he was a terrible choice for a candidate,

Come on. The unelectable candidate just got more votes than anyone before him. Sanders dropped out from the nomination race when he had no realistic hope of winning. These nominations are miniature elections in themselves, and while there are several matters that seem odd from abroad, like that you have to be filthy rich to participate, they're not really determined by "the party". (Like European parties choose their candidates.)

Quote
and the only way he makes sense as a choice is to be a stand-in for someone who can't be legally elected to that office.

Do you know something about Kamala Harris that I don't? She was in the nomination race herself. Of course she's legally electable.

Quote
As for how, he will probably bow out for health reasons, or just die. It would be quite a believable story if it weren't so utterly convenient.
He's old. I give you that. But I doubt Biden's plan is to die or retire.  (laugh) Choosing Harris for vice president has more to do with appealing to a broad spectrum of the voting public.

eri0o

Re: Trumpmageddon
« Reply #471 on: 07 Nov 2020, 16:58 »
And just as I post this, I get an update that CNN has called the election for Biden. Took a bit longer than I expected, but there it is.

This is good news! Snarky, just to be clear, I agree with everything on your answer to me. I think you may have misread me. Hope you have a great day.  :)

Best quote I read today on the good results is: "Americans can always be trusted to do the right thing... after they've tried everything else"
« Last Edit: 07 Nov 2020, 17:35 by eri0o »

Re: Trumpmageddon
« Reply #472 on: 07 Nov 2020, 17:22 »
A fortunate conclusion, at long last.

One should not discount the elderly. Youth does not need to hamper a leader, but neither needs age. Mr Biden has been in this line of work for years, and seventy seven is not the age it used to be. I do believe that death will pass him by for some time. He may die on his post, but then, so might his vice president before him, or anyone else. That mournful angel defies expectations, as Mr Biden could attest. We cannot know.

Nonetheless, onwards for Groggy Joe! Hurrah! Hurrah! It will be a pleasant thing to have such a thing as decency and calm at the top of the tree again.

I wonder, however, what manner of devilry Mr Trump may get up to, for these following three months. He is apparently at one of his golf courses, at time of writing. They would be wise to change the lock to the white house while they can. Not to mention, things will be rather messy from now on, no matter what. Political dead-lock is just the start of it.

If I may be briefly partisan, mr Trump's chief talent as a political entity has been to short-circuit ordinarly political business and diplomacy by sheer force of nastiness and blazing egotism. No trick too knavish, no target too low, no knot too thick to cut. This sheer, childlike method of rule by bullying is the true danger, and I can only hope that it is going out with its main proponent. That governing by semi-concious tweeting is a method found wanting and abolished. Only hope. Without that malign influence, there may be a chance to restore a political apparatus that work, and a household divided that can at least stand one another's presence.

Unless, of course, someone else pick up the very same method.

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Re: Trumpmageddon
« Reply #473 on: 07 Nov 2020, 17:26 »
Right, Hillary Clinton is planning to assassinate Joe Biden so that Kamala Harris can be a puppet for Barack Obama. (roll)
(We're quickly headed towards the sort of conspiracy mongering that is banned on this forum.)

I actually wrote up a whole response, but on reflection, I think it's better not to engage.

And just as I post this, I get an update that CNN has called the election for Biden. Took a bit longer than I expected, but there it is.

As for all heated internet discussions one have learnt it's usually better to not engage. I've done the same so many times. Wrote a long response, only to decide not to post it, at all. Waste of time. All you get? Higher bloodpressure, and rarely no satisfaction of a clear argumentation win. Cause the other idiot will never lay down the battle axe and say "You've won, wow what an epic reply!". They will have some stupid comeback, almost always. Trumps wall was the dumbest. I remember how i told friends "Oh, the talk about the wall that's just bs, he talks like that to sound bad ass, he'll never do it.". Then he actually did it.  (wrong) Couldn't believe it  (laugh).

Jack

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Re: Trumpmageddon
« Reply #474 on: 07 Nov 2020, 17:58 »
Sanders dropped out from the nomination race when he had no realistic hope of winning.

No, this is just plain wrong. Sanders threw his considerable grassroots base behind the chosen candidate both times. This is one way "the party" chooses the candidate.

Are you seriously suggesting that those that grit their teeth to vote for Biden just out of hate for Trump wouldn't be happy to vote for someone like Sanders?

Re: Trumpmageddon
« Reply #475 on: 07 Nov 2020, 18:26 »
Sanders dropped out from the nomination race when he had no realistic hope of winning.
No, this is just plain wrong. Sanders threw his considerable grassroots base behind the chosen candidate both times. This is one way "the party" chooses the candidate.
I guess I should have worded it "no realistic hope of winning the nomination". Sanders, by the looks of it, chose to urge his followers to vote for the chosen democrat candidate to avoid splitting the party. That's the common practice in recent years, if I've understood it correctly. It's been suggested that Obama recommended this course of action...which is not a conspiracy as far as I'm concerned. Tactics, maybe.
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Are you seriously suggesting that those that grit their teeth to vote for Biden just out of hate for Trump wouldn't be happy to vote for someone like Sanders?
Are you seriously suggesting that I'm suggesting that?  (laugh) It's quite out of my comprehension that Hillary Clinton didn't win the last time. Seen from outside the US, any candidate ought to beat Trump, and Sanders especially. But then again, left-wing politicians in the US would be far right in Scandinavia. The political landscapes are vastly different.

Jack

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Re: Trumpmageddon
« Reply #476 on: 07 Nov 2020, 18:37 »
I guess I should have worded it "no realistic hope of winning the nomination".

Which is still wrong. Sanders was leading key polls a week before the nomination, with Biden running 3rd.

Snarky

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Re: Trumpmageddon
« Reply #477 on: 07 Nov 2020, 19:00 »
Snarky, just to be clear, I agree with everything on your answer to me. I think you may have misread me. Hope you have a great day.  :)

I may have. I'd have had no problem respectfully disagreeing, but I'm happy to be in agreement as well.  :-D

I've had a pretty good day, thanks. I finally found some curtains I like for my kitchen and now I'm eating pizza and getting pleasantly drunk. Hope you're doing well too!

Right, Hillary Clinton is planning to assassinate Joe Biden so that Kamala Harris can be a puppet for Barack Obama. (roll)
Wouldn't it make more sense to just... wait.  :-\
(We're not exactly talking about someone who is young, fit, and healthy here.)

Fun fact: Joe Biden is four years older than Bill Clinton, who was elected president back in 1992. He'll be the first president from the "Silent Generation" (those born 1928–1945).

Is it too early to draft Jimmy Carter as a candidate for 2024? Make America Greatest Generation Again!

I guess I should have worded it "no realistic hope of winning the nomination".

Which is still wrong. Sanders was leading key polls a week before the nomination, with Biden running 3rd.

A week before the nomination nobody was polling that question because Biden had clinched it long ago. If you mean a week before Sanders put his campaign on hold, making Biden the presumptive nominee… you're still wrong. That was on April 8, and at that time Biden had had a lead in polls and primary results that was, realistically speaking, insurmountable for the last month.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/

There was about a three-week period in February when Sanders was in the lead and Biden in second (or perhaps very briefly in third), but for the rest of the year-long campaign, Biden led consistently.

Jack

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Re: Trumpmageddon
« Reply #478 on: 07 Nov 2020, 20:11 »
A week before the nomination nobody was polling that question because Biden had clinched it long ago. If you mean a week before Sanders put his campaign on hold, making Biden the presumptive nominee… you're still wrong. That was on April 8, and at that time Biden had had a lead in polls and primary results that was, realistically speaking, insurmountable for the last month.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/

There was about a three-week period in February when Sanders was in the lead and Biden in second (or perhaps very briefly in third), but for the rest of the year-long campaign, Biden led consistently.

A little history on where those numbers came from, snarky

Sanders Seizes Lead in Volatile Iowa Race, Times Poll Finds [nytimes.com]

The DNC can't steal the election from Bernie Sanders despite the Iowa chaos [theguardian.com]

Quote
This has been a confusing 24 hours, to say the least. The Iowa caucus appeared to go fine, but then a tabulating fiasco delayed official results. We’re still waiting on them.
The problem, in part, was rooted in a “Shadow Inc” application used to help tally the votes. The app had gotten attention in the weeks before the caucus, with experts worrying that it could be vulnerable to hacking.

More detail on the "errors"

Bernie Got Robbed in Iowa, And It Could Throw Fuel on His War With the Democrats [vice.com]

Snarky

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Re: Trumpmageddon
« Reply #479 on: 07 Nov 2020, 20:40 »
So when what you said is proven wrong, you just change the subject to lie about something else. Noted.