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Author Topic: Hard Brexit: what consequences?  (Read 4432 times)

Re: Hard Brexit: what consequences?
« Reply #100 on: 12 Sep 2019, 10:27 »
Erm, remember that famous Guardian cover page? Whatever “democratic oversight” people suddenly seem to attribute the House with, they've proven in two years that they aren't up to it.

« Last Edit: 01 Feb 2020, 01:45 by fernewelten »

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Re: Hard Brexit: what consequences?
« Reply #101 on: 12 Sep 2019, 13:49 »
Except, I don't think that's the case any more. I really think if we had another binary leave-remain referendum, the remain camp would come out on top this time, providing a 50%+ majority over leavers (hard and soft).

I do wonder though, if we had a three-way hard-soft-remain referendum, what the result would be? Remain would probably not win such a vote, certainly not by 50%+.  It would be a perfect illustration of the stalemate you describe above.

I think Remain would certainly win over two Brexit options (without needing to get 50%+), because the Leave vote would be split. However, brexiteers would obviously see that coming and oppose a 3-way referendum even more vehemently than another leave/remain referendum. I know a few people who are convinced that remain would walk it if we had a 2nd ref, now that the facts are on the table. But I'm very sceptical of that. The facts didn't bother us much last time, what's changed?

Re: Hard Brexit: what consequences?
« Reply #102 on: 12 Sep 2019, 15:34 »
Yeah. To be honest, I'd still be up for a 2nd referendum even if it did mean risking another leave win. At least this time we'd know that enough people still want it even after everything that's gone on in the past few years and perhaps it'd be time to accept Brexit. But until that day I would like to see the whole matter dropped and everything reverted back to pre-ref times.

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Re: Hard Brexit: what consequences?
« Reply #103 on: 01 Feb 2020, 00:57 »
/looks at clock

Annnnnddd...you're out!

...

*cough*

...

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Re: Hard Brexit: what consequences?
« Reply #104 on: 01 Feb 2020, 01:36 »
We’ve taken back control of our bananas.

Re: Hard Brexit: what consequences?
« Reply #105 on: 01 Feb 2020, 03:02 »
Well, the Conservatives led by that microwave guy did get the majority, so I suppose the Brexiters had the approval of the British people after all.

And I really can't bring myself to believe that this very persistent separation will has just been founded on the Brexiters not knowing the (correct) "facts". Everyone that really wanted to learn these facts had great opportunities to do so, and more than two year's time for it, too. So I can only conclude that those facts weren't that relevant for the Brexiters' decision. There must have been other reasons, other circumstances, other facts that were more relevant to them than those facts that the Remainers always touted. I don't know. I don't think that the German media have done a good job of objectively understanding and explaining the core concerns of both sides -- I don't think they even tried --, so I can't claim to have an impartial and comprehensive view on the matter.

The EU's strategy or hope that the British separationist tendencies would somehow just  ... go away ... if they just keep staunchly talking them down and ignoring them has failed. That much is certain.

I don't think that the negotiations between the United Kingdom and the rest of the EU have even begun yet. The real negotiations will only start now, now that it is certain that the Brexit happens indeed. A lot of "red lines in the sand" will probably turn out to be a bit less immovable than they've been made out to be. The surprised public might even learn that there have been actual precedents for maxims that must never be put up for disposal under any circumstances.
« Last Edit: 01 Feb 2020, 08:05 by fernewelten »

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Re: Hard Brexit: what consequences?
« Reply #106 on: 01 Feb 2020, 03:08 »
Well, let's hope the Leavers were right, and it'll all be long summer evenings with warm beer and boules from here on in.

My prediction is, if the Tories win the next General Election, they'll try to position the UK as a convenient tax haven off the coast of the EU, slashing taxes and workers rights to attract industry in the regions and financial transactions to the City. In 10 years time the economy will be growing and Brexit will be declared a success. But most of us won't see that growth, as wages continue to stagnate and the cost of living continues to rise. Bugger all will be done to tackle climate change, never mind the mindboggling intersection of climate change and global migration. On the upside, some of the people who voted for Brexit will have died.

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Re: Hard Brexit: what consequences?
« Reply #107 on: 01 Feb 2020, 06:08 »
Well, the Conservatives led by that microwave guy did get the majority, so I suppose the Brexiters had the approval of the British people after all.

Just as a point of fact, parties that opposed Brexit or promised a new referendum (Labour, Lib-Dems, SNP, Greens; not even counting the Northern Irish votes for Sinn Féin, SDLP or Alliance) were supported by a majority of the voters, just over 50%. It's just that it doesn't help as long as those voters were split across four+ parties and inefficiently distributed across constitutencies: the Tories ended up with 56.2% of the seats based on support from 43.6% of voters. That's first-past-the-post for you.
« Last Edit: 01 Feb 2020, 06:15 by Snarky »

Re: Hard Brexit: what consequences?
« Reply #108 on: 01 Feb 2020, 08:29 »

At least it's a good thing that this brexit is not so hard as Johnson planned!  :-\

_

Re: Hard Brexit: what consequences?
« Reply #109 on: 03 Feb 2020, 06:02 »
Like fernewelten said, I guess the federal election at the very least gave people the reassurance and peace of mind that the referendum results did indeed reflect the will of the public. Wishing you guys the best with your new venture!

Re: Hard Brexit: what consequences?
« Reply #110 on: 03 Feb 2020, 09:31 »
After being on the fence right until entering the voting station, and voting leave in an eeny meeny moe fashion, some time afterwards i realised it was a terrible mistake to have done so. It seems as a left wing person, I should have voted remain. But nothing was clear or particularly helpful when I tried to research it. I'm not very good at politics but this whole thing has shaken my belief in always voting, if I don't know what I'm doing.


I did vote for Labour in the recent election.
« Last Edit: 03 Feb 2020, 09:34 by ManicMatt »

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Re: Hard Brexit: what consequences?
« Reply #111 on: 03 Feb 2020, 10:42 »
Like fernewelten said, I guess the federal election at the very least gave people the reassurance and peace of mind that the referendum results did indeed reflect the will of the public. Wishing you guys the best with your new venture!

As Snarky said, unfortunately not. The remain / 2nd referendum vote was split between the Lib Dems and Labour. Meanwhile, the Brexit party stood down in constituencies where they might have pulled votes away from the Tories. So the victory reflects a Labour collapse (losing remainers to the Lib Dems and brexiters to the Brexit Party) rather than a Tory surge.

To put that another way, we're definitely leaving. But the UK is still 50/50 on Brexit, and it's highly acrimonious.

Re: Hard Brexit: what consequences?
« Reply #112 on: 03 Feb 2020, 13:01 »
As I read it, there have always been three options on the table. They only were confounded into two options in various ways.

To be specific, there is
  • Hard Brexit (clean break)
  • Soft Brexit (e.g., Norwegian model)
  • Remain.
Take any two and you'll find that they are mutually incompatible -- but added mathematically, they cover a tight majority. Take any single one and you'll find that it could be implemented in principle -- but it's a minority position that has a resounding majority against it.

An that's the background in which the sorry saga played out thusly:

I. Corbyn: “Come on, people, we're still staying in, aren't we?” -- UK: “NAAAAAAY!”
The way that this question was worded confounds a Hard Brexit with a Soft Brexit -- and this is the explanation for that (in)famous result. But unfortunately, you can only have the one OR the other. So ...

II. May:“Fine, let's befuddle brexiting to specifically mean just soft brexiting. You're all for backstops and adhering to all EU regulations, aren't you?" -- UK: "NAAAAAAY!" -- May: “But that's the only thing I'm willing to champion! Let's retry EXACTLY the same!” -- UK: “BOOOOO!” -- May: “I covered my ears and didn't hear you! Let's retry!” -- UK: “BOOOOO!” -- May:“Retr....!” -- UK: “BOOOOO”  --  ... ad perpetuam.
By championing the Soft Brexit, May had forced the Hard Brexiters and the Remainers into a voting coalition that had a sound majority. But no actionable alternative.

III. Johnson (old tune): “So May was daft. Let's befuddle brexiting to mean hard brexiting instead. Everyone behind me?” --  UK: “NAAAAAAY!”  -- Johnson: “Bummer.”

Elections. The people: “We're SOOOO tired of that eternal darned confounded deadlock. This has become SOOOO old!”

IV. Johnson (suddenly changing the tune): “Right! I've got you covered! I've got such an exquisite three-star delicious gourmet microwave Brexit dish for you folks. The specific recipe details are my trade secret, but it'll only take five minutes, so help me Jupiter.”

-- and he came through and that's where we're standing now.

Most probably you'd still find the same three factions in the populace if you asked specifically enough, and in nearly unchanged quantities ever since Corbyn's time. But it seems that the people were so tired of that hard brexit, soft brexit conundrum that they were willing to let it be broken up any old how.
« Last Edit: 03 Feb 2020, 17:42 by fernewelten »

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Re: Hard Brexit: what consequences?
« Reply #113 on: 03 Feb 2020, 14:56 »
After being on the fence right until entering the voting station, and voting leave in an eeny meeny moe fashion, some time afterwards i realised it was a terrible mistake to have done so. It seems as a left wing person, I should have voted remain. But nothing was clear or particularly helpful when I tried to research it. I'm not very good at politics but this whole thing has shaken my belief in always voting, if I don't know what I'm doing.


I did vote for Labour in the recent election.
I know exactly what you mean.
I also voted leave in that initial vote. Not because of the obvious lies regarding the NHS, or even the clearly racist immigration thing. My reasoning was because of how taxes work for small businesses here in Britain vs how the EU was enforcing them in order to prevent big businesses from cheating the system (in short, they clashed hard). This along with the selling of certain animals which would be bad for some countries in Europe, but completely harmless in other countries (including Britain). Not great reasons, I know, but better than most people who chose leave I think.

All other votes though, I chose to abstain, because of how much information came out about how nuanced the situation was.  8-0
I understood that I didn't know enough to make an informed decision.
And I'm sure there are people here who can tell me how even choosing to make no decision, was a bad decision. But that's a damned if you do and damned if you don't, kind of thing.

I do wonder how things will play out though.  ???

Re: Hard Brexit: what consequences?
« Reply #114 on: 03 Feb 2020, 15:15 »
That makes me feel better. Yeah it seemed like there was good points on both sides at the time.

It's very wounding when people online tar people who voted leave with the same brush, as racist assholes. Not everyone is/was.

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Re: Hard Brexit: what consequences?
« Reply #115 on: 03 Feb 2020, 16:11 »
To be specific, there is
  • Hard Brexit (clean break)
  • Soft Brexit (e.g., Norwegian model)
  • Remain.

I'm afraid I think that's a simplification. "Clean break" implies a degree of simplicity and, well, cleanliness, and a hard Brexit would have been chaotic. More importantly, there are lots of soft Brexits, and almost all of them are very unpopular. Before the referendum, many Leave advocates were insisting we'd remain within the single market, EU citizens would be allowed to stay etc.

The reason May couldn't get her deal through (or win a majority) is that she was offering a pragmatic compromise. And that was just as unacceptable to the disaster capitalists who wanted a hard Brexit as it was to the remainers who wanted no Brexit at all. Johnson's marketing genius was to talk a load of old bollocks and offer people the wonderful, sunlit Brexit they were promised in the first place. On closer examination, it's going to look a lot like May's deal.

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Re: Hard Brexit: what consequences?
« Reply #116 on: 03 Feb 2020, 18:48 »
Most probably you'd still find the same three factions in the populace if you asked specifically enough, and in nearly unchanged quantities ever since Corbyn's time. But it seems that the people were so tired of that hard brexit, soft brexit conundrum that they were willing to let it be broken up any old how.

And I'd still argue that a closer look at the general election results doesn't support the second part. Given the choice between the Johnson Tories' "Brexit: anyway, anyhow" and the other parties' "Definitely not Hard Brexit and not any Brexit deal that has yet been negotiated and even if there's a new deal for Soft Brexit there should be another referendum" (or simply "Let's cancel Brexit") most voters opted for No Brexit/new referendum. Which doesn't argue that people were resigned to Brexit and just wanted it over with. (Of course, this was not the only issue in the election, but still.)

The UK election system being what it is, the pro-Brexit side won (which is fair enough), but that doesn't actually reflect the preference of the electorate.

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Re: Hard Brexit: what consequences?
« Reply #117 on: 14 Feb 2020, 11:33 »
Fail at Floaty Rog' now!  still having to deal with what games are going through

Re: Hard Brexit: what consequences?
« Reply #118 on: 14 Feb 2020, 12:04 »
People are starting to acclimatize: https://twitter.com/ColinBrowning14/status/1227906931450425344


LMAO, I was going to say "nope, this is exactly the Brexit you voted for", but the comments are already taking care of that. Fucking gold.

Re: Hard Brexit: what consequences?
« Reply #119 on: 14 Feb 2020, 12:17 »
By the way, by the symptoms I wouldn't be at all surprised when the microwave oven is opened ceremonially at the end of the year and no cupcake turns out to be in it after all. That is, no treaties whatsoever turn out to have been concluded anywhere, everyone everywhere has just been twiddling their thumbs, and the whole year has been wasted just like the three years preceding it.

So far, all the parties have been playing a wrong-headed game of “chicken” about a dealless Brexit since day one, so this could then plausibly continue straight on: Britain asking for a postponement at the very last minute to continue the status quo on an interim basis, all the 26 countries of the EU convening at the very very last minute and granting that as a very very very last chance, statements being made, sentiments being expressed, and Britain continuing to sit straddled on the fence for all eternity, cleaving her bum ever deeper and refusing to climb down on either side.

That is, of course, unless that cursed “chicken” game will suddenly go wrong in earnest sometime and there'll be a big traffic accident … :-\
« Last Edit: 14 Feb 2020, 15:20 by fernewelten »