Jibble

Author Topic: Global Pandemic Lockdown  (Read 20771 times)

Slasher

  • slasher
    • I can help with AGS tutoring
    • Lifetime Achievement Award Winner
    • I can help with scripting
    • I can help with story design
    • Slasher worked on one or more games that won an AGS Award!
    •  
    • Slasher worked on one or more games that was nominated for an AGS Award!
Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #20 on: 15 Mar 2020, 14:54 »
Let's see how many of us are still alive and healthy in 6 months..

cat

  • Mittens Baronet
  • AGS Baker
    • cat worked on one or more games that won an AGS Award!
    •  
    • cat worked on one or more games that was nominated for an AGS Award!
Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #21 on: 15 Mar 2020, 14:55 »
It's totally crazy here right now, almost a complete lockdown. From tomorrow on, you are only allowed to go shopping food, or to work, or on a walk if you are alone and it is really necessary (how do you define if a walk is necessary?). All shops (except supermarkets) and restaurants will be closed.

Some measures I think are okay, like isolating infected or exposed people, closing schools, no gatherings with more than 100 people, forbidding visitors in hospitals etc. I also have no problem working from home. But not allowing to go outside?
They lock down kindergartens but provide some emergency care if parents need to work but ask to use this only if really necessary. I would have agreed with that, but at the same time they close all playgrounds, with police patrol and fines and stuff. What shall I do with my kid? I will not accept such grave restrictions of basic rights and send her to emergency kindergarten (as long as this is still possible).

Worst thing is: they now say this is for two weeks, but realistically, what will be different in two weeks? There will still be no medicine or vaccine so what then? Shut down life till the end of the year?

I am not afraid of the virus (even though I'm in a special health situation myself now), but I'm afraid of turning into police state and loss of basic rights.

Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #22 on: 15 Mar 2020, 15:39 »
Here in UAE gov sector we're all at home. People are taking it seriously, but we're far from the panicky scenes you see in some other countries. I hate to say it because I know these times are trying for so many people, but I have really been enjoying the down time so far. I'm up at 5:00 most mornings and getting loads of work done on private projects I thought I wouldn't have time to touch in 2020, plus also spending lots of time with my wife and son. We catch a Netflix family movie together every afternoon. The running joke is whether dad (me) can stay awake through the whole movie. (laugh) Dinner is always an experimental affair as we try to use up whatever ingredients we have to limit trips to the supermarket. I can't remember when we last had so much time to do pretty much nothing together. It's been great!

My wife's Chinese, and we've been told the kids in her area of China are going to be back at school soon, so...I hope the wave of relief will slowly be making its way westward over the coming months.

Mandle

  • NO PIXEL LEFT BEHIND!!!
    • Mandle worked on one or more games that won an AGS Award!
    •  
    • Mandle worked on one or more games that was nominated for an AGS Award!
Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #23 on: 15 Mar 2020, 15:53 »
Worst thing is: they now say this is for two weeks, but realistically, what will be different in two weeks?

Here in Japan they are also saying "two weeks" for most closures, but also adding "unless an extension is needed"...

I think the government is doing a bit of psychology here where people won't panic too much if they think it's just two weeks, and then extend it two weeks at a time until people catch on and panic, and then it's National Guard time.

Cassiebsg

  • Cavefish
  • Fleeing the Cylon tyrrany...
    • Cassiebsg worked on one or more games that won an AGS Award!
    •  
    • Cassiebsg worked on one or more games that was nominated for an AGS Award!
Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #24 on: 15 Mar 2020, 16:53 »
You know they keep throwing this death statistics and all, but I would like them to also mention how many people died of "normal" flu in the same period.  (roll) That would be some thing I could relate to and maybe get people to panic less and realize that, covid-19 or no covid-19, we should just keep certain rules to minimize spreading sickness to those that are already weak.
The gov today announced that they "may" forbid people from going out... if they do they'll just give the hoarders a reason to keep hoarding... as they'll be "Ah! Glad I bought all that stuff when I did and not listen to the gov."  (roll)

I'm just glad it's not Ebola, to be honest, the way it's going it would wipe the planet of people in a flash.  8-0
There are those who believe that life here began out there...

Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #25 on: 15 Mar 2020, 18:01 »
This virus is far deadlier than flu already and we haven't seen much of it yet as it has barely started spreading. The only reason why flu's death toll, in raw numbers, is higher is because flu is everywhere and has been for ages.

Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #26 on: 15 Mar 2020, 21:38 »
Worst thing is: they now say this is for two weeks, but realistically, what will be different in two weeks? There will still be no medicine or vaccine so what then? Shut down life till the end of the year?

No, there will not be a cure in two weeks, but that's not the point. The whole point of the two-week quarantine is to slow down its growth, stagger the contagions and try to avoid everybody getting infected at the exact same time so that health services don't collapse, which is what's happened in Madrid or the north of Italy, for example. If you stay home then you're no longer a vector for contagion, and the avalanche will turn into a steady trickle that will be way more manageable. That is the most urgent objective right now.

Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #27 on: 15 Mar 2020, 22:27 »
This Washington Post article has some nice simulations that you can run in your own browser and that show the rationale behind the lockdown. There isn't any (mandatory) paywall, but Europeans must jump through some stupid hoops because of GDPR.
« Last Edit: 15 Mar 2020, 23:40 by fernewelten »

Snarky

  • Global Moderator
  • Global Moderator
  • Mittens Lord
  • Private Insultant
    • Best Innovation Award Winner 2018, for his numerous additions to the AGS open source ecosystem including the new Awards Ceremony client and modules
    • Snarky worked on one or more games that won an AGS Award!
    •  
    • Snarky worked on one or more games that was nominated for an AGS Award!
Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #28 on: 15 Mar 2020, 23:55 »
That's true, Laura, but as far as I can tell it's also true that it will take a lot more than two weeks for that strategy to work. (And I'm seeing some talk that we might be in for months of this.)

If you keep the restrictions in place for two weeks and successfully stem the epidemic so that only a relatively small number of people are infected, then lift them and let things go back to normal, you're back pretty much where you started, and the epidemic will just begin to peak again. It doesn't solve the peak overload problem unless you keep it up until the peak has passed (or at least until a significant proportion of the population have already had the virus and recovered, becoming immune)—and since the whole point of the strategy is to slow it down, it also means it will take longer for that point to come.

Of course, buying time is not something to sneeze at (pandemic pun!): it lets you ramp up treatment capacity (though unlike China, we probably can't build new hospitals in ten days), maybe learn about better treatments, and might mean that healthcare workers who were infected can return to work, immune. (It also gives the people who are going to die a few weeks more to live, which is nice.) But maybe more importantly, in two weeks we will know a lot more: maybe COVID-19 is not as bad as we thought after all, and we can relax these measures. Or maybe it becomes clear that it is really bad, and the public is more prepared to accept some tough choices.

Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #29 on: 16 Mar 2020, 05:13 »
I am not afraid of the virus (even though I'm in a special health situation myself now), but I'm afraid of turning into police state and loss of basic rights.
Same.  This is what really scares me.

Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #30 on: 16 Mar 2020, 05:48 »
Snarky, I definitely agree that the two week mark is not a magic bullet, but like you say, it might be what we need to gather our wits and resources and be better prepared to tackle whatever's in store ahead. It's not that I'm not concerned that we'll have to learn to live with these restrictions for say, another month or two, but right now I think a unity of purpose and a willingness to accept these sacrifices is really important for overall morale and to avoid descending into chaos. That's basically my rationale for supporting the imposition of stricter measures at first, rather than going with a more relaxed approach. But in the end, it's going to be a waiting game and like a body undergoing chemotherapy for cancer, we need to hope that the virus cracks before we do, if that makes sense.

and might mean that healthcare workers who were infected can return to work, immune

Not just immune, but also in a better mental state... They're probably the ones having it worst of all right now and anything we can do to relieve their ordeal is incredibly important :(

Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #31 on: 16 Mar 2020, 09:10 »
I heard some news recently that more than thirty thousand American soldiers landed in Europe for a military exercise, they said that they are here "to defend Europe from a possible invasion". All of this is supposed to be called "Defender Europe 20". Now although that Europe is still an area of contagion, they have seen themselves disembarking without protective masks or any kind of protections. That is, we must use protective masks and stay at home as much as possible while there are soldiers throughout Europe doing their exercise. I think they are referring to the supposedly imminent invasion of Russia in Europe? Although our planet is really going through catastrophic times these people are still here waging war on each other.

EDIT: Here's where I read such news, it's a popular newspaper in Italy. I wouldn't like to spread any political conspiracy theories so if a moderator feels like I am braking some forum rules please feel free to delete this post.
« Last Edit: 16 Mar 2020, 10:00 by Vincent »

Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #32 on: 16 Mar 2020, 10:11 »
Sounds real enough: https://www.eur.army.mil/DefenderEurope/

That they aren't wearing masks shouldn't be a problem as long as nobody of them has caught the virus.
Fail at Floaty Rog' now!  still having to deal with what games are going through

Snarky

  • Global Moderator
  • Global Moderator
  • Mittens Lord
  • Private Insultant
    • Best Innovation Award Winner 2018, for his numerous additions to the AGS open source ecosystem including the new Awards Ceremony client and modules
    • Snarky worked on one or more games that won an AGS Award!
    •  
    • Snarky worked on one or more games that was nominated for an AGS Award!
Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #33 on: 16 Mar 2020, 10:26 »
Thanks for the link to the source, Vincent!

Well, this is a NATO exercise years in the planning that has been ongoing since February—it's going to be difficult to just cancel on a dime. (And BTW, this type of exercise is not in response to fears of "imminent invasion," but general strategic deterrence and training in the face of a perceived long-term threat.)

The US has announced that it will reduce the number of troops involved and are taking precautions to reduce risk of transmission. There are also reports that parts of the exercise involving troop movements have been canceled. I would be very surprised if the "free concerts" mentioned in the article go ahead, too. As countries' responses are evolving quickly, I would not assume that the plans from last week or the week before are still going to go ahead. Edit: If I were a military commander, I'd say that unexpected things and epidemics can happen in war, and you have to respond quickly. So turn that into a part of the exercise, a new success criterion: the goal is now to contain the spread of the disease while remaining operational.

One can of course debate whether the steps they're taking are enough given the situation, and be critical of military exercises in general (and it would almost be disappointing if il manifesto, quotidiano comunista didn't take that position), but it also appears that this narrative is being promoted in part by Russian propaganda outlets as a way to sow distrust of NATO.
« Last Edit: 16 Mar 2020, 10:47 by Snarky »

Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #34 on: 16 Mar 2020, 10:49 »
I must pre-face this post with an apology, for it is quite long. Many of my reflections on the matter tumbled out as I sat down to write it.

Reporting from Sweden, I can say that it is quite odd. It is generally business as usual, but there are a lot less people out. There has been some scattered panic buying, but the shelves are filling back up at a re-assuring pace. The only thing I notice (besides the newspapers, of course) is a marked lack of customers at work.

Now, Swedish authorities seem to shadow Great Britain's herd immunity method, thus avoiding measures such as lock-downs and quarantines and closing borders. Schools remain mostly open, although under watch. This remain contentious, but it is done, we are assured, to ensure that disadvantaged children, with no-where else to go but school, are not left to fend for themselves, and to keep their parents at work. Everyone is, of course, urged to wash their hands, maintain a safe distance and self-isolate if necessary. Congragations exceeding five-hundred attendants are also forbidden; although sticking to 499 instead is considered rather poor form. Large sums of money are set aside to aid businesses affected by the outbreak. Indeed, a special forfeiture fee has been attatched, to ensure that the banks do spend this stimulus as intended.

This method is a very hard sell, as it were, in a world that seems at a state of total war upon the sickness. It most certainly was to me.

I thought it was merely complacency and inaction on the part of the authorities; people appointed to positions they are not fit for, who are more concerned to not threaten political sacred cows. 'They do not dare touch their precious open borders!', I sneered. 'They are obfuscating the numbers on purpose!', I huffed. 'Why is action anathema to these people, who are they working for!', I wondered.

I have since changed my mind. I have come to rather appreciate their stance, and their determination to keep everyday life in motion at almost any cost. In fact, I admire it. It is bold, calculated and cold as ice. It keeps a sense of proportion, that while it is a dangerous disease, it is not a death sentence. We are not at war. No one is being dug out of the rubble of a bombed house, no ships are going under in blazing oil slicks. Telephones work, water comes out of the tap, and that precious bog-roll is still rolling out of the factories.
There is, however, the question of honesty. What they are doing is taking a significant risks, partly for the sake of ideals. It is not the first time that Swedish authorities nor her political bodies do that, but it is greatly reflected now, in the Corona Scare.
To speak bluntly, people will die. Many of the likely victims are in geriatric and palliative care and thus already close to death, but quite a few who will die would have had more time in this world if measures against the epidemic had been stricter. While children that are known to be sick and weakly are no doubt quarantined as necessary by their parents, I am most certain that some children may become severely ill or die as a result of the decision to keep the schools open.
The authorities must consider these losses as acceptable. I wish they would dare say so. They seem prepared to do whatever it takes to maintain a sense of normality, and I admire that. However, they seem much less keen to taking responsibility for it. One shudders to imagine if they are wrong, if herd immunity will not work...

As for me? I remain vigilant, of course, for the sake of the infirm and the eldery as much as my own, but maintain an ordinary life. I have a war supply of provisions, but it remains untouched, and I doubt I will have to go hungry or cold or without tobacco. I put my life in God's hands every day, but I have done so for all my life, and I think that, on the whole, it is about as safe as it ever was.

Be safe, everyone. There will be a tomorrow, and we will make it through to see each other then.

EDIT: On the matter of the NATO exercise; Snarky is no doubt correct. It is difficult to cancel these appointments, and regular exercises are important. Indeed, maintaining the ordinary functions of the military in times of crisis is vital. An invasion or an attack, as utterly hypothetical such a beast is at the moment, would be quite catastrophic at a time like this. The military is one of those services that simply must work, epidemic or not, and I imagine the Pentagon would agree. Of course, soldiers are generally young and fit, and with the epidemic ongoing, I imagine that they are well supervised. Not to mention, having what appears to be a divison worth of troops prepared if civil order breaks down due to the epidemic would be very handy.

cat

  • Mittens Baronet
  • AGS Baker
    • cat worked on one or more games that won an AGS Award!
    •  
    • cat worked on one or more games that was nominated for an AGS Award!
Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #35 on: 16 Mar 2020, 12:31 »
Today a medical appointment I was supposed to have this week was cancelled because they had to close the practice at least for the week. I was promised that I will get a new appointment as soon as they can open again. However, the examination should be done within the next two weeks and it is not sure that they will open by then.
The crazy thing is, at the moment, there are less than 300 infected people in our area with a population of about 3.5 million. Of course, infections will increase within the next weeks - will they then be allowed to open the practice again and do my examination?  :-\

Complete panic here at the moment...

blur

    • blur worked on one or more games that won an AGS Award!
    •  
    • blur worked on one or more games that was nominated for an AGS Award!
Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #36 on: 16 Mar 2020, 13:02 »
I wonder if there is an (AGS) adventure game that would fit the current reported events.

Snarky

  • Global Moderator
  • Global Moderator
  • Mittens Lord
  • Private Insultant
    • Best Innovation Award Winner 2018, for his numerous additions to the AGS open source ecosystem including the new Awards Ceremony client and modules
    • Snarky worked on one or more games that won an AGS Award!
    •  
    • Snarky worked on one or more games that was nominated for an AGS Award!
Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #37 on: 16 Mar 2020, 13:25 »
I've seen a lot of people talk about how Shardlight basically predicted this situation.

Danvzare

  • The Man with No Name
    • I can help with AGS tutoring
    • I can help with proof reading
    • I can help with scripting
    • I can help with voice acting
    • Danvzare worked on one or more games that was nominated for an AGS Award!
Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #38 on: 16 Mar 2020, 19:31 »
Everything is fine in Britain. Thanks to Brexit, we're too plucky and independent to be affected by things happening in the real world.
I know right?
Everyone's been carrying on like normal here.
And it seems like the panic-buyers here think that supermarkets are the only stores that exist.
So it's been life as normal for me.

I am not afraid of the virus (even though I'm in a special health situation myself now), but I'm afraid of turning into police state and loss of basic rights.
Same.  This is what really scares me.
What scares me is the potential death of my loved ones. I know more than a few people who are almost certainly going to die if they catch it.
I'll be fine (at least, I should be), my grandparents though...  that scares me.  :~(

Ponch

  • AGS Baker
  • Sweatin' to the Oldies
    • Lifetime Achievement Award Winner
    • Ponch worked on one or more games that won an AGS Award!
    •  
    • Ponch worked on one or more games that was nominated for an AGS Award!
Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #39 on: 16 Mar 2020, 20:22 »
This entire thing is just surreal. My city was hit by some tornadoes a few weeks ago. The schools were shut down for a few days as a result. We went back to work for all of three days before they closed the schools again due to pandemic panic. I'm into my second week off now. Fifteen minutes ago, the superintendent sent out a call to all the parents and employees saying that the schools are closed until April.

I've never seen anything like this. So strange.   :undecided:
*