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Author Topic: Global Pandemic Lockdown  (Read 49808 times)

Snarky

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Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #520 on: 12 Apr 2022, 19:04 »
I've got to say I disagree with you there, Khris.

First of all, the graph shows infections, not deaths, so the "triangle of death" label is rather misleading. Nor is it a given that the curve would follow a linear trend to zero. An exponential effect, gradually flattening to reach some stable level, seems more plausible in the case of non-intervention, all things being equal. Nevertheless, it is no doubt true that lifting the mask mandate leads to more infected people, and that a few of those people die.

However…

The virus has become endemic: we will never get rid of it. In particular, the Omicron variant was so virulent that it could not be contained by any reasonable measures, they would just slow down the spread ("flatten the curve," remember that?). So there will never be a point where we can lift mask mandates and other restrictions because we have "beaten the virus."

This leaves us with a choice: adopt mask mandates and other restrictions permanently, or say that we have done all we can: we have vaccines, we have a milder version of the virus, and it no longer threatens to overwhelm our healthcare system. Therefore, now is as good a time as any to end the restrictions. A stable rate of infections may in fact be preferable, because it provides a degree of herd immunity that means sudden spikes and outbreaks of new variants will hopefully be less dramatic. (Dropping the mandate also makes it possible to re-impose it if it should become necessary, while the alternative is probably increasing non-compliance that makes it unavailable for future use.)

Early on, idiots were saying that COVID-19 was no worse than the flu, and citing numbers that ignored (a) that the pandemic was just getting started, and (b) that those were the number of people dying even given the lockdowns and social distancing. But those objections are no longer the case, and now it can be fairly said that as long as people get vaccinated, COVID is comparable to the flu. Yes, some people will die of it, but it's no longer one of the great problems facing our society.

Of course, this doesn't mean that the precautions we learned during the pandemic should not be practiced, particularly isolation for people who are sick.

eri0o

Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #521 on: 13 Apr 2022, 00:49 »
I don't know how other countries are, but if everyone is vaccinated, then it's as good time as any to lift the mask mandates, but it should be alright too to wear one if you want, some public spaces are really constrained and a good pff2 mask is pretty useful in those - mainly in transportation.

I don't think herd immunity is a thing though with this disease in particular since it seems people can get reinfected, better to just at least yearly reapply the vaccines and go on.

I like the new remote work opportunities that appeared though, I think this allows some people at least to be able to move around more freely and not necessarily live in the big centers.

Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #522 on: 13 Apr 2022, 02:58 »
Japan have pretty much lifted all restrictions. Numbers were starting to come down but have recently begun to stabilize, much like in Khris’s graph.

The difference is that in Japan people are still wearing masks in pretty much every situation except for in their homes and in bars/restaurants (even then masks are worn until to get to the table and start eating/drinking).

The other difference is (I’ve said this before but it bears repeating): there NEVER was a mask mandate in Japan. People just did. And still do. My only worry is that I can foresee Japanese people simple adopting the mask as standard and that means people with a bit more common sense will never again be able to take their masks off in public without being made to feel ashamed about it.

One of my observations earlier in this thread was about people wearing masks even when they were walking alone in a non-crowded open space, and how ridiculous that seemed to me (I will often pull my mask off when I’m not near people because frankly cars and hedges can’t catch covid-19. But even now, even after the rest of the world has made mask-wearing a LEGAL requirement, and then lifted those requirements, I’m still seeing practically everyone, no matter how much personal space and fresh air they have around them, wearing a mask.

Nobody wants to be the first to take it off and admit they don’t always need it.

This is a common thing in Japan. You may have heard that people here will always wait for the green man at a pedestrian crossing, even when it is clearly safe to cross. Maybe this is to be admired, but here’s an interesting observation.

Whenever you have a group of people at a crossing. The man is red, but there are no cars coming, it’s a narrow road and everybody knows they could all cross and no one is going to even see a car, let alone get hit by one. But… *IF* one person does break the rule and start crossing, then others will usually follow. Like the just needed permission from the strangers around them that they’re not going to be judged badly for breaking this rule.

I think it’s the same with masks. People are just waiting to see when other people around them stop wearing masks… but nobody wants to be first. And it doesn’t count if I do it because I’m a foreigner. If I break a social rule (or pedestrian code) then that’s because I’m a stupid gaijin.

Sorry for the rant, but I’m basically going to be stuck wearing masks forever unless I move my family out of this country, so it’s kind of a pain in the arse.

Snarky

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Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #523 on: 13 Apr 2022, 05:49 »
I don't think herd immunity is a thing though with this disease in particular since it seems people can get reinfected, better to just at least yearly reapply the vaccines and go on.

Apparently epidemiologists dislike the term "herd immunity," but it was just shorthand for the documented fact that having had COVID does give you a degree of resistance to reinfection (though not 100%) at least in the near term, and this in turn makes it harder for the virus to spread in a population that has previously been exposed. It absolutely doesn't mean people shouldn't be vaccinated and boosted regularly, especially as the resistance appears to be cumulative.

This also reminds me that it's probably time for some of my family members to get another booster.

Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #524 on: 19 Apr 2022, 11:32 »
Yeah, I was exaggerating a bit to illustrate my point.

Here's an update:


You can clearly see the plateau right after the mask mandate was dropped, but the numbers are going down so all is fine I guess. Except for the 10% to 15% percent who will be permanently or at least long-time affected by long covid.

Not wearing a mask in a crowded indoor space is idiotic to me no matter how tired we all are or how "mild" the infection is going to be. People are still wearing helmets on construction sites afaik, we didn't drop this because only some die, right? To quote the first search result, "3.5 out of every 100,000 construction workers will die every year. In 2019, the United States saw 5,333 deaths". That's much lower than covid, but let's all just stop wearing masks while grocery shopping, right?
Masks are extremely cheap and very effective. So why do we get rid of them? Because it reminds the people that the pandemic is real. And some just can't deal with that.

Snarky

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Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #525 on: 16 Jun 2022, 14:01 »
Well, the Corona finally got me (presumably Omicron BA.2). I'm on day 3 after positive test now, and feeling generally shitty but not more so than for a flu. Wish I could have gotten a fourth booster dose beforehand, but I suppose this will boost my resistance for the rest of the year.

Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #526 on: 16 Jun 2022, 16:36 »
Ahh damn. Unlucky, man. Hope you get well quickly.

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Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #527 on: 16 Jun 2022, 18:18 »
Well, the Corona finally got me (presumably Omicron BA.2).

Hey, you held it off for an admirable length of time. I was a dosed-up, masked-up, gel-covered, social-distancing freak, and I still got Omicron as soon as it started becoming the dominant strain.

Get well soon. :)
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Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #528 on: 16 Jun 2022, 20:29 »
It inevitably gets us all. I'm glad it hasn't hit you as hard as it's hit some people.
Get well soon.

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Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #529 on: 16 Jun 2022, 21:54 »
Get well soon, Snarky! I'm not sure a booster would have helped - current vaccines don't seem to be very effective against Omicron anyway (I will only get my booster once the new vacs are there). At least, now you got your Omicron update.

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Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #530 on: 16 Jun 2022, 22:38 »
We got it back in feb. Good luck and get well soon!
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