Author Topic: Global Pandemic Lockdown  (Read 3292 times)

HanaIndiana

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Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #80 on: 22 Mar 2020, 18:01 »
I'm in the US (Oregon state), and in our state just about everything is locked down. You can get groceries, and medicine, and restaurants can sell food, but only curb-side takeout or delivery. We even have weed delivery which.. I never thought I'd live to see the day.  :-D It's okay to go outside, as long as you distance yourself from others.
 But it differs state to state, until we get a national law I guess.

I feel really scared for people who can't work.. I can't imagine the stress. I think, at least in the US, it's going to get worse for a couple months, and lockdowns will probably stay through summer. We don't have nearly enough testing yet, but maybe in a month the testing will ramp up. A lot of people still don't think it's a problem.

Oregon has had about 4 deaths, but not enough testing. Our governor is building two makeshift field hospitals, just in case. Which frankly makes me happy because it says she is taking it seriously. I don't want people to die, especially if they could have been saved if enough beds were available. The world has survived these things before, but this is not a ride anyone wants to be on. Stay safe everyone.

Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #81 on: 22 Mar 2020, 21:57 »
Two whistle blowers silenced...

You don't need a whistleblower to get to the conclusion that the future is in peril of becoming very dire, very soon. You only need a pocket calculator.

Let's do this for Germany (where I'm currently based).

Day by day for more than a week or so, our confirmed Corona cases have increased to the tune of 25 % to 33 %. Per day. So a daily increase rate of ~30 % is what we actually seem to be able to achieve in reality and practice. Let's use that number.

10 days ago, there were only 7 % (that is, 1.3 to the power of -10) of the cases we have now. Experts say that those who need ventilators need them for around 10 days. So we can only rely on 7 % of the ventilators to be re-usable as the patients of 10 days ago now recover or die. And this extends into the future for the people that start needing the ventilators today. For all intents and purposes, we'll need all our ventilators at the same time. With that increase rate of ~30 %, we are failing completely to "flatten the curve".

Now let's check our capacity. We've got around 15,000 intensive care beds with ventilators that can be reserved for Corona. (There are 28,000 intensive care beds in Germany overall, but we can't reserve them all because others need them too, and not all the beds have a ventilator)  Experts say that about 1 Corona case out of 20 needs a ventilator, so we've got capacity for 300,000 Corona cases. That's it.

Two days ago, we passed the 5-digit mark and had 10,000 "confirmed" Corona cases in Germany.  Start then and repeatedly multiply by 1.3.
Just considering the "confirmed" cases we'll reach capacity in only eleven days. After that, it's triage time.

But the actual number or Corona patients will be higher than the "confirmed" illnesses: Our test capacity is limited (by manpower, not by money). That's why we only test those with symptoms that have come into contact with Corona patients or have been in risk areas. We can't "confirm" any of the cases that we don't test, so there's bound to be a hefty dark figure of Corona cases that we don't know about.

Go figure ....
« Last Edit: 22 Mar 2020, 22:19 by fernewelten »

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Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #82 on: 22 Mar 2020, 22:53 »
Yes, but with the measures at hand, the chances are that on 11 days the number of people needing hospital care and ventilators will start dropping as all the closing measures, quarantine and social distance will start taking effect, but yes, it will still suck for those that do get sick during the peak as they may die while it could have been avoided otherwise.  :~(

Over here they have stopped testing people with non serious symptoms for like a week ago, and thrusday/friday medical personnel as well, unless they display serious symptoms... they are simply running out of test kits, and thus are saving them for the critic patients. So exactly what is the number of infected people in Denmark is a very big question mark. But a number I would like to see, but that no news bulletins seem to care to report, is of those infected how many have now recovered.
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Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #83 on: 23 Mar 2020, 00:24 »
McDonalds is closing it's doors here. Truly a sign of end times...


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Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #84 on: 23 Mar 2020, 00:29 »
But a number I would like to see, but that no news bulletins seem to care to report, is of those infected how many have now recovered.

According to german news almost 98.000 people recovered (marked in green, "genesene Patienten").

KyriakosCH

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Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #85 on: 23 Mar 2020, 00:41 »
It is interesting that Germany has so few deaths reported as Coronavirus caused, when compared to other countries with similar numbers of cases. Any explanation?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Eg, Germany having almost 25000 cases, but only 94 deaths, when Spain (28000 cases), France (16000) and USA (32000) have hundreds or thousands of dead.
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Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #86 on: 23 Mar 2020, 03:04 »
The number of people being tested can dramatically affect the ratio. If you’re only testing critical cases you’re going to end up with a higher proportion of deaths but if you’re testing as many people as possible you’re going to catch a lot more mild cases and the proportion of deaths will be lower.

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Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #87 on: 23 Mar 2020, 04:26 »
  The only person I know who has it, and is recovering, is in Germany.  He says it is like a moderately severe flu, and while he's resting a lot he is far from bedridden - within the confines of his house.

  Where I am these days (U.S. East Coast) things are a little weird of course, but people are being good at distancing and the stores aren't too ravaged outside of TP.

KyriakosCH

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Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #88 on: 23 Mar 2020, 06:25 »
The number of people being tested can dramatically affect the ratio. If you’re only testing critical cases you’re going to end up with a higher proportion of deaths but if you’re testing as many people as possible you’re going to catch a lot more mild cases and the proportion of deaths will be lower.

Seems likely, yes - also going by the number of those reported as "critical" there.
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Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #89 on: 23 Mar 2020, 07:00 »
The number of people being tested can dramatically affect the ratio. If you’re only testing critical cases you’re going to end up with a higher proportion of deaths but if you’re testing as many people as possible you’re going to catch a lot more mild cases and the proportion of deaths will be lower.

Seems likely, yes - also going by the number of those reported as "critical" there.


It's also lower if you don't implement a strict nation-wide protocol for post-mortem testing.

btw, we're finally on lockdown. Took them long enough...

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Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #90 on: 23 Mar 2020, 07:13 »
And of course, the number of tests done, and the criteria for who gets tested, greatly affects the number of infections found, so we should be careful with calculations such as fernewelten's: an apparent explosion in cases could be a reflection of testing being ramped up, while a supposedly low rate could be because a lack of testing (or, in some cases, unreliable or insensitive tests). There are a lot of interesting data wrinkles for stats geeks to dig their teeth into.

KyriakosCH

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Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #91 on: 23 Mar 2020, 07:19 »
The number of people being tested can dramatically affect the ratio. If you’re only testing critical cases you’re going to end up with a higher proportion of deaths but if you’re testing as many people as possible you’re going to catch a lot more mild cases and the proportion of deaths will be lower.

Seems likely, yes - also going by the number of those reported as "critical" there.


It's also lower if you don't implement a strict nation-wide protocol for post-mortem testing.

btw, we're finally on lockdown. Took them long enough...


Yes, I heard something about that too. Would also help explain the strange difference.

Btw, since today we are on something like "official" house confinement mode. I doubt the system they set up with "get authorization by mobile text" is meant to do much other than dissuade the older people from leaving their house - we shall see. Also, seems unrealistic to have police check your id - handing it over when there is a virus doesn't seem very logical.
« Last Edit: 23 Mar 2020, 07:21 by KyriakosCH »
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Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #92 on: 23 Mar 2020, 13:49 »
And of course, the number of tests done, and the criteria for who gets tested, greatly affects the number of infections found, so we should be careful with calculations such as fernewelten's: an apparent explosion in cases could be a reflection of testing being ramped up, while a supposedly low rate could be because a lack of testing (or, in some cases, unreliable or insensitive tests). There are a lot of interesting data wrinkles for stats geeks to dig their teeth into.

THIS!!!

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Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #93 on: 23 Mar 2020, 14:18 »
Yeah, I've seen states in the US reporting a number of deaths that's very close to the number of cases, which is extremely unlikely and must reflect the fact that people are only being tested if they're in a bad condition.

Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #94 on: 23 Mar 2020, 20:33 »
I went from a full time job to a no time job. I live in New York State and had to file for unemployment. Had this job as an engraver for 20 years. This really sucks.

KyriakosCH

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Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #95 on: 24 Mar 2020, 01:24 »
^That sucks. I hope you find a new job soon :/

I mostly get money (these days) from my online literature seminar, so thankfully that is at the moment ok. But if this goes on for months it will be killed, obviously.
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Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #96 on: 24 Mar 2020, 03:27 »
Damn. Sorry to hear that, Domino. Hope you get something new soon.

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Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #97 on: 24 Mar 2020, 05:17 »
The other day I was imagining what it's going to be like about halfway through this thing, when half the people who are gonna get it have already had it and the other half are still terrified of getting it.

We are going to have two distinctly separate groups of people in the same society together. I wonder if we will see prejudice between these groups. Will "Immunies" or whatever we end up dubbing them, be treated with fear and suspicion by "Not-Yetters" because they might have an image of not being as careful anymore about their cleanliness?

I wonder if bars and cafes etc. will start putting signs out like "Welcome, but only if you've had it."

Things like that. We will see I suppose.
« Last Edit: 24 Mar 2020, 05:21 by Mandle »

KyriakosCH

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Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #98 on: 24 Mar 2020, 06:19 »
The other day I was imagining what it's going to be like about halfway through this thing, when half the people who are gonna get it have already had it and the other half are still terrified of getting it.

We are going to have two distinctly separate groups of people in the same society together. I wonder if we will see prejudice between these groups. Will "Immunies" or whatever we end up dubbing them, be treated with fear and suspicion by "Not-Yetters" because they might have an image of not being as careful anymore about their cleanliness?

I wonder if bars and cafes etc. will start putting signs out like "Welcome, but only if you've had it."

Things like that. We will see I suppose.

Afaik it's not yet entirely known if one can get some new form back (ie if this mutates fast enough, while remaining lethal), so two groups wouldn't make sense in such a case.
What alarms me is how more draconian measures are taken regarding this, when compared to the first coronavirus or other such illnesses.
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Re: Global Pandemic Lockdown
« Reply #99 on: 24 Mar 2020, 08:28 »
Afaik it's not yet entirely known if one can get some new form back (ie if this mutates fast enough, while remaining lethal), so two groups wouldn't make sense in such a case.

Yeah, sorry, I meant if that turns out to be the case.