And then there were none (AGS Werewolf Game 3) (Phase: End Discussion)

[Mandle]

I have indeed had my elbow tapped once again while you all were talking and managed a quiet conversation over there in the shadow of that creepy stuffed bear trophy...

The person who tapped my elbow has told me that they are the Nurse. (I got a PM from the "Nurse")

From what they told me after some back and forth conversation I tend to believe them...

However, a further test is needed before we allow them completely into the circle of trust.

I'm not going to just give them the name of the Psychic that easily.

Tonight the Psychic will scan the "Nurse" to see if they are who they claim to be.

I will let everyone know tomorrow either through my living words or my journal (PM), in the event that I die tonight.

Oh, and if I'm being tricked and the real Nurse is just sitting by without contacting me then they should do so AS SOON AS POSSIBLE!!!

Just some commentary and strategy tips below, hidden to reduce book-length post:

Spoiler

Now let's see the conspiracy theories!!! Well, if I was a really horrible person I could have tried this kind of move on an unsuspecting group of newish players and this is probably exactly the kind of power-play that an experienced scum team might attempt. So, be warned of this kind of thing for potential future games. But, in this case, I'm actually being honest about everything, which is much easier than being dishonest. When people have to lie to explain their actions there are most often flaws in what they say if really examined carefully: Strawman argument deflections and many other kinds of attempts to place the blame elsewhere will be used. Always try to spot the liar!

All that being said, I still could be trying to win over everyone's trust with everything I just said. Always look at all the possible angles before trusting anyone! But yeah, if I really were doing that this time I would feel pretty horrible about it, as I said above...

Spoiler

Or would I?! Never take an emotional appeal at face value!!!

[close]

[close]

[cat]

Is it really worth wasting a scan on the nurse? I would assume that if it was a fake nurse the real nurse would show up now. I'd rather scan one of the other suspects to increase the chance of finding the murderer.

[Kastchey]

When people have to lie to explain their actions there are most often flaws in what they say if really examined carefully: Strawman argument deflections and many other kinds of attempts to place the blame elsewhere will be used. Always try to spot the liar!

Can we put this into practice by going through what you said?

So you are a normal Guest, and are working with the Psychic. You have been contacted by an anonymous person claiming to be the Nurse, who after some conversation revealed their real forum identity to you (did I understand it correctly?) and you thought they made enough sense for you to tentatively trust them.

Now, it makes perfect sense to me that you would want to confirm the claimed Nurse's identity before revealing the Psychic's to them (be it via scan or providing a false Psychic identity on the first night to see if they get killed, or asking them to protect you for starters before they get to protect the Psychic). If they are evil, they might have wanted to try and trick you and the Psychic into wasting a scan on an innocent player, and can do it safely because the anonymous PM basically guarantees to them that this tactics wouldn't backfire.

But if that person was the real Nurse, what benefit would it be for them to hide behind a nickname only to reveal themselves to you anyway? Would it be just for an extra layer of protection, in case you said something that seemed off to them and they eventually decided not to trust you? If so, is it really worth for them to raise your suspicion by using an anonymous account just for that?

(You said wanted conspiracy theories, so there you go )

[tzachs]

Which statement did you find suspicious and why?

This statement:

In case you made this all up, then the psychic shall step up and say so.

Because it sounds like a murderer's trick to expose the psychic.

Anyway, here's what I think we need to do:
1. Don't lynch anybody
2. If Mandle is telling the truth, then scan the nurse
3. (Not completely sure about this) if the nurse hasn't revealed itself to Mandle yet, don't!

I'll explain my reasoning: we have 25% of getting a real murderer and 75% of killing one of our own. If we don't kill anyone, then tomorrow we'll have 5 vs 2 as opposed to 4 vs 2 if we mess up, and then one more day of messing up and we're done. So by not lynching, we get one extra day.
If Mandle is being truthful, then I think scanning the nurse is a must, because if he's fooled by a murderer it's pretty much game over.

And about the nurse not coming to Mandle, a bit more complicated, and I'm not completely sure my logic here is flawless, but here goes:
If Mandle comes tomorrow saying that the nurse was scanned and was revealed a murderer, if we believe him and lynch that murderer and we're wrong, we'll lynch Mandle the next day, and the score will be (assuming we don't lynch anyone tonight): 2 good vs 1 bad, and by then we have a pretty good chance of winning.
If Mandle+nurse comes out tomorrow together then we know this: either they are both truthful or they are both murderers or Mandle is a murderer and he tricked the nurse. They wouldn't be able to point a murderer (because the nurse + Mandle was supposedly scanned). At this point if Mandle is lying then psychic should come out. That psychic should scan the nurse and we'll lynch the psychic.
If the psychic was truthful, we'll have 3-2 and we know that Mandle is a murderer and we'll also know if the nurse is a murderer, in which case we won.
Or, we'll have 2-1 again with a good shot. If the psychic was lying then that's probably best case scenario: 4-1.
If the psychic doesn't come out, then we believe them and we're also in a very good place.

Trying to do the same logic with 2 nurses coming forward seems more complicated, I'm not sure if it's better or worse, but it sounds like an unnecessary risk at this point.

[dayowlron]

I think tzachs logic holds water very well however no matter who is who the murderers will claim another victim tonight and that victim might be the nurse or the psychic which would cause some of those numbers to be slightly different. Either way I agree that the Psychic playing it safe sounds like a very good deal.

[Stupot]

I get the feeling that Mandle is sort of telling the truth but has something up his sleeve. I feel that if he he's lying about anything it is because he is in fact himself the nurse or something like that and he is testing to see if someone else comes forward. If this is true then he may or may not have been genuinely contacted by the psychic. Hopefully we'll find out tomorrow because the psychic can scan another town member and let us know whether Mandle has been making it all up. In which case we lynch him.

As for who the killers are, I am none the wiser. Just based on behaviour I'm torn between two.

[Mandle]

You have been contacted by an anonymous person claiming to be the Nurse, who after some conversation revealed their real forum identity to you (did I understand it correctly?)

because the anonymous PM basically guarantees
....................
If so, is it really worth for them to raise your suspicion by using an anonymous account just for that?

Kastchey, you sneaky sneak!

I can't think of anything that I said that could make you think the Nurse had contacted me anonymously.

I see what you're doing there:

You're trying to get me to say if the Nurse contacted me via normal AGS PM or not because you've been checking all the players' online times on their AGS profiles and one or more of us was not online between the times when I said the Nurse hadn't contacted me and the time when I said the Nurse had contacted me.

This would eliminate some (or possibly many) players from your list of potential Nurses to target for your kill tonight!

Vote to lynch: Kastchey

(By the way, I have contact outside of AGS forums with quite a few AGS members: facebook, Line, etc. so the online AGS times trick is not going to work well in my case.)

I strongly encourage everyone to vote to lynch Kastchey before night comes!!!

[Kastchey]

Frankly speaking, no. This wasn't even what I asked about. You said you got a PM from "Nurse", which to me sounded as if they used an account named "Nurse', here or anywhere else - e.g. via email. That's why I asked if I understood you correctly, and if so, why would the Nurse think it beneficial to do it this way. Did someone say straw man fallacy?

Checking forum times and drawing conclusions would be naive because you could have been contacted earlier or later than you said. Or not contacted at all.

It seems as if you were either honestly mistaken (by overinterpreting my question), or intentionally looking for someone to accuse because people started considering lynching you tomorrow.

Why did you even emphasise you got a PM from "Nurse" right after saying basically the same thing? It looks either like extremely bad wording, or as if you were intentionally trying to confuse someone to get them lynched quickly.

[Kastchey]

And to answer your question, this is the quote that made me think you said the Nurse was anonymous:

The person who tapped my elbow has told me that they are the Nurse. (I got a PM from the "Nurse")

Given that three people replied after me and no one pointed it out, I take it I wasn't the only person who had this understanding.

[Mandle]

Hmmmm, that actually does sound like a reasonable explanation...dammit!

The reason why I put the quotation marks was not because the person called themself "Nurse" but to indicate that they said they were the "Nurse" but I don't know yet if they really are.

I hadn't considered that it could be taken the way that you seem to have, even after a rereading to see how you could have come up with the "anonymous" theory.

So then I jumped to a conclusion which I thought was probably 90% likely.

I'll return my voting status to:

Vote to lynch: NOONE for now...

But I would be interested to hear more from Stupot:

As for who the killers are, I am none the wiser. Just based on behaviour I'm torn between two.

Firstly, what is it that is preventing you from voicing your suspicions now? Wouldn't it be more constructive to get them out there for everyone to consider? Or are you just saying this to make it appear like you are spending time thinking about who the bad-guys are when you actually aren't?

Secondly, you say you are torn between two. But there are two killers so why are you "torn" at all?

[Stupot]

Quite the opposite. I haven't spent enough Time thinking about it.

I just have no idea and I haven't really had enough time to really sit and analyze the posts properly. Everyone's being super reserved compared with previous games and not really giving any opinions regarding who to lynch. It's the second day but unless I've missed something we're still at the stage where lynching anyone is fairly random. We probably should lynch someone but I don't wanna be the one to lead the charge because it would be basically random.

When I said ‘torn between two' I just meant there were two people in my radar as just a little bit more suspicious than the others, and that I was torn as to which one of them to vote for to lynch. One of which was Dayowlron because he seemed quite quick to accuse you (Mandle) early on. He's cooled of a bit now but I wonder if that's just because I scared him with my preliminary non-yet-vote.

The other one is someone who hasn't posted much and I don't really have a special reason to vote for them other than their being suspiciously quiet.

[josiah1221]

Hmmmm.... Hmmmm.... and some more Hmmmm...

Well, if you are telling the truth Mandle then I ask the Nurse to protect you and the Psychic to scan me tonight!

[cat]

This statement:

In case you made this all up, then the psychic shall step up and say so.

Because it sounds like a murderer's trick to expose the psychic.

Actually, if Mandle was lying, there would be another psychic around, that has scanned another guest and thus could use him as spokesperson as well, no need to be exposed.

Anyway, here's what I think we need to do:
1. Don't lynch anybody

I'll explain my reasoning: we have 25% of getting a real murderer and 75% of killing one of our own. If we don't kill anyone, then tomorrow we'll have 5 vs 2 as opposed to 4 vs 2 if we mess up, and then one more day of messing up and we're done. So by not lynching, we get one extra day.
If Mandle is being truthful, then I think scanning the nurse is a must, because if he's fooled by a murderer it's pretty much game over.

Considering Mandle now knows the psychic and the nurse, there are only 5 people with unknown role to him: 3 guests and 2 murderers. Which means, his chances at the moment are 20% vs 40%. Not bad, IMHO.
The murderers have the same chance next night, to kill either the psychic or the nurse. Chances for both teams increase of course, if they consider what people wrote and who is most suspicious. Which means, no matter if Mandle is saying the truth, chances aren't too bad that either the nurse or the psychic is killed next night anyway.

What shall we do now? I think the psychic should scan the most suspicious person (and definitely not the nurse!). Or, we could go even more radical, lynch the most suspicious person and and scan the next best one. But this is probably is too extreme.

2. If Mandle is telling the truth, then scan the nurse
3. (Not completely sure about this) if the nurse hasn't revealed itself to Mandle yet, don't!

Which is where I completely disagree: The psychic shall NOT scan the nurse and the nurse shall reveal itself if it hasn't done so yet.

[cat]

Considering Mandle now knows the psychic and the nurse, there are only 5 people with unknown role to him: 3 guests and 2 murderers. Which means, his chances at the moment are 20% vs 40%.

Aaaaand, I should really learn how to do my maths
Of course I meant 40% vs. 60%

[cat]

And talking about math: I'm I the only one confused by this?

What does 7 mean?

[Kastchey]

I understood it as a roleplaying hint from Sinitrena to our characters that there are two murderers, so that we can continue roleplaying if we wished to without having to use OOC knowledge of the game rules. But then we kinda stopped roleplaying.

[dayowlron]

When I said ‘torn between two' I just meant there were two people in my radar as just a little bit more suspicious than the others, and that I was torn as to which one of them to vote for to lynch. One of which was Dayowlron because he seemed quite quick to accuse you (Mandle) early on. He's cooled of a bit now but I wonder if that's just because I scared him with my preliminary non-yet-vote.

The reason I was quick to accuse Mandle was that I figured he was just trying to get the Nurse to reveal themselves so he would know who to murder next. He knew the Psychic would not reveal themselves but the Nurse might and those are the 2 strongest people on the good side. but then later I considered that it could also be that the Psychic was using him as a spokesperson. That is why I cooled off. I still have some suspicions of who the murderers could be and yes it is possible he is one, but right now would just be a guess.

[VampireWombat]

*blinks* I don't suppose anyone has some coffee, a peg board, and some some string?

[dayowlron]

And talking about math: I'm I the only one confused by this?

What does 7 mean?

I figured that 7 meant that of the 9 people that were here that 7 were good. as in the next murder would have a 6 left. I think Riaise was sending us a message that there is 2 murderers.

[dayowlron]

*blinks* I don't suppose anyone has some coffee, a peg board, and some some string?

Don't have any coffee. I have some thumbtacks we could put on the wall and a couple of shoelaces. would that help?