And then there were none (AGS Werewolf Game 3) (Phase: End Discussion)

[Kastchey]

So it's 3 votes for cat now, with mine now 4, but now I feel incredibly bad for voting her (and I still think that at best, it's a coin toss between her and VW) which only shows that I'm too much of a wuss for this game :/

Since town wins anyway, I guess we could refrain from voting a potential scapegoat today, let the Psychic get another scan and at worst lynch someone tomorrow to the same effect. Unless it was just roleplay (a very good one, btw )and cat in OOC doesn't mind getting herself lynched.

[tzachs]

* Back from a stroll on the beach *
Did I just see cat jumping out of the window? From the first floor? We should go check, she might still be alive.

Since town wins anyway, I guess we could refrain from voting a potential scapegoat today

If we don't lynch anybody today, then this can happen:
murderer murders the psychic + psychic scans a guest.
Then we're 3-1 the next day, with 2 guests clear and 2 candidates for murderers and without a psychic, so it's not a guaranteed win.

As much as it hurts, killing an innocent person is better than not killing at all.
This might have been the first time ever this statement has ever been true.

[VampireWombat]

The butler makes good points. I suppose checking to see if she's still alive or not might be a good idea, even if we're going to lynch her ourselves...
I honestly have no reason to vote for her other than it seems she's who everyone else thinks is most likely...
Sorry, cat.

[Kastchey]

The butler is almost right, but he is missing one thing. If we don't lynch anybody tonight, then it no longer matters if the murderer kills the psychic or a normal guest as long the murderer themselves avoids being scanned on night 4 *and* gets another person lynched on day 5. Killing the psychic only mattered until night 3 (up and including).

Which is why the murderer would not even intentionally go for whoever they think most likely to be the psychic, but rather for someone who has already been cleared, that is, Josiah (regardless of whether he is really a guest or the psychic himself), to reduce the number of teamed-up good players (scanned+psychic) to 2.

...

[VampireWombat]

Here's how I see things going.
Cat gets lynched, we find out cat is innocent. The host kills Josiah and the psychic scans someone. Which then leaves Kastchey, tzachs, and me alive.

[Kastchey]

Yes, that's the only certain way for town to win.

[tzachs]

Right, I messed up the example, but the logic stands: if we lynch cat we definitely win, if we don't lynch anybody it's not a guaranteed win.
Are we all agreeing on that?

[VampireWombat]

I'm not completely sure it's a guaranteed win either way, but lynching cat does increase the odds.

[Kastchey]

It is guaranteed. Let's for the sake of argument assume that you are the Psychic. You know you are innocent, and you know Josiah is. We lynch cat, cat turns out to have been innocent. You are killed by the murderer tonight, but still get to scan tzachs before you die. That means out of the three remaining players alive: Kastchey, tzachs and Josiah there is only one person who has not been scanned yet and this person must be the murderer.

[VampireWombat]

Alright. I'm not arguing or anything. It's just that there's something nagging in my mind that says there's still some way the host can win. I just can't think how...

[Kastchey]

Neither am I, just trying to clarify But you're right, there is a way for the host to win. Like tzachs said, the host can win by not lynching anyone today. Which will not happen, since everyone is pretty set on sacrificing cat.

But *if* it happened - let's say I, the host, kill Josiah on night 4, which leaves you (the Psychic), cat, tzachs and me alive. On the same night 4, you scan cat and prove her to be innocent. That leaves me and tzachs as unknowns. If I then manage to convince you and cat that tzachs is the party host and get him lynched, then on the following night I kill one of the remaining two of you and win as it becomes 1-1 situation Sinitrena referred to earlier.

[Kastchey]

So Mr. Jolly, is she dead or alive?

If she is still alive, then it would be all too cruel to retrieve her from where she fell and restore her consciousness only to lynch her a day after.
Therefore, I offer myself for the next victim instead of cat. Please, lock me up and see if there is any murder the following night. If there is none, you can do what you want to me - kill me, turn me to the authorities, or leave me here to rot.

And meanwhile, you can search cat's room for the proof of her guilt (OOC: scan her ).

Vote to lynch: Kastchey

OOC: In case anyone wonders if this is an attempt to prevent lynching, I remind you there is still around 24 hours left in this phase. If I wanted to sneakily mess up vote balance, I would have waited at least a few more hours, or longer. Should you decide to change your vote and lynch me as I suggest, you can always return before the deadline and check if you don't need to adjust your vote to ensure someone does indeed get lynched. Or you can ignore this altogether if you think things may go south, and keep your vote.

[VampireWombat]

That's... an interesting way to go about things. But I'm going to wait and see what others do.

[tzachs]

She's ALIVE!
She was not breathing when I got there, but I gave her some of that wolfsbane mojito and she immediately responded. She's a strong one, that cat. I think she still has 8 souls left in her.

Hmmm, Kastchey, you did make me a little bit suspicious, I must confess. Like a last desperate attempt to stir things up. Though I guess it's possible that you really do feel guilty (but why? it IS just a game, and it's for the good of the people, hmmmm).
Interested to hear what cat has to say, do you want us to lynch Kastchey instead of you or do you want to jump out of the window again (but maybe this time from the second floor)?

[Kastchey]

It may be an attempt to stir things up, you can never know for certain. It would have been a very unlikely attempt though, given that I have specifically warned everyone that they may want to double check shortly before the deadline if things are still in order, that I took effort to explain in details how the evil team can and cannot win after tzachs corrected my own initial mistake, and that I did not wait until the very last moment with this proposition.

If I was the host, wouldn't I want to try to be at least a little bit sneakier?

(Or perhaps I just still enjoy the RP aspect, and trust that all of us can count to 3 ;-) )

Very well gentlemen, I leave you with this offer and I shall retreat to my chamber now. Should you and Ms. Cat decide to follow my suggestion, you know where to find me. I am confident Mr. Jolly has already located keys to the basement in this run-down establishment.

[josiah1221]

As mentioned there is still a likely chance that we can lose even if we do lynch someone today, other than the Psychic of course, that would be an almost guaranteed loss.

Let's say we lynch cat, she is innocent and then tonight the Psychic gets killed but scans someone. The Psychic will have 3 choices of who to scan so unless he/she gets lucky and scans the murderer there will still be 2 unknowns going into day 5. OR the Psychic doesn't get killed but scans the person that does get murdered then once again there will still be 2 unknowns in day 5. Then if we lynch the wrong person it's game over, or we don't lynch and it's definitely game over.

So basically the only way for a guaranteed win tomorrow is we lynch someone, other than the Psychic. Then myself, or one of the other 2 Guests gets killed tonight. The Psychic gets lucky and scans the murderer or one of the 2 unknowns that didn't get killed. Only then will we know for sure who the murderer is.

That is if we don't lynch the murderer today.

[Kastchey]

As mentioned there is still a likely chance that we can lose even if we do lynch someone today, other than the Psychic of course, that would be an almost guaranteed loss.

My understanding is still that there is no chance to lose as long as we do lynch someone. We start off with two people revealed: you (scanned) and the Psychic. Let's say we lynch cat as you proposed, she turns out to have been innocent. That's the third person revealed on day 4. Then no matter if the murderer kills them or not, the Psychic gets to scan one person. But they only have two scan choices since they already know that you (Josiah) are innocent and they will by then know that cat was innocent, if she indeed is. If the scanned person turns out to be a guest, then only one person remains who must be the party host.

I made my offer mainly because I wanted to see more activity in the thread, and because it really doesn't matter who gets lynched as long as someone does. But if you think it's risky to change the votes in case we mess up and end up 2 vs 2 somehow (which could only happen if the party host deliberately retracted their vote shortly before the deadline, and no one paid any attention), then do not change anything. We have a nice vote balance set up, so it actually might be wiser not to mess with it. If this is the consensus then I'll change my vote back to cat.

[josiah1221]

Ugh, It seems I've forgotten how to add! My mind is a bit frazzled at this point! But yeah, we must lynch someone and my vote for cat remains. (Sorry cat! ) We need to stick to that majority vote to guarantee the win!

[Kastchey]

Yeah, and I was starting to wonder if there is something not-so-obvious I was missing

I have also considered if it's even possible that I have given the murderer a weapon to turn things their way, but I still can't see how that would work.

We have an odd number of players, and everyone voted. Lynch gets blocked only if we end up 2vs2. So even if I did make two of you change their votes, the murderer would have to retract their vote rather than change it, and that would expose them immediately.

[VampireWombat]

Okay, so I guess it looks like we're sticking with cat, then?