Quote from: Snarky on Wed 09/11/2016 11:35:54
Having become President and commander of the armed forces, Trump's ego swells to even more grandiose proportions. He is hooked on the high of adulation, and responds to any criticism or attack with uncontrolled fury. Having alienated much of the political establishment (particularly the foreign policy establishment), his administration is short on expertise and full of extremists, sycophants and charlatans. His undisciplined, impulsive and downright foolish words and actions, as well as the missteps of the other unqualified administration members, cause numerous international and economic crises, to which his instinct is to respond with aggression and escalation. Hopefully his easy manipulability (just flatter him) and more rational actors in other countries manage to stop these crises from sparking wider war.
Encouraged by Trump's lack of support for American alliances, Russia, China and other states step up confrontation with their neighboring countries. South Korea and Japan respond by rearming, which may include a nuclear weapons program. Other East Asian states make concessions, resigning themselves to increased Chinese influence. In the former communist states in Europe there's a decrease in faith in all the institutions and ideals of "the West": EU, NATO, liberal democracy. NATO continues to weaken and fracture (not just because of Trump, but also by the erosion of democracy in countries like Poland, Hungary and Turkey), and with no reassurance of common defense, individual countries start to arm up and pursue separate defense strategies. There's a worldwide rise in militarism and nationalism.
The US abandons many of its treaties, including the Iran treaty (so Iran resumes its nuclear weapons program), NAFTA (causing a loss in trade with Mexico that weakens the economy), the Paris climate change treaty (setting back any effective action to stop the ongoing global environmental disaster), and more. "Obamacare" is only partially abolished, but millions of Americans do lose their health care. Deep tax cuts lead to giant deficits, and to cuts in government programs and staffing. Anti-trade policies and attempts to "get tough" in trade negotiations with China and other countries lead to retributory policies that may escalate into a trade war. Together with the uncertainty caused by Trump's erratic behavior, this causes the economy to plunge into another recession.
On immigration, Trump's signature policies (the wall, deportation) are watered down or only carried out to a symbolic extent; most of his supporters don't notice, but some hardliners decry him as a traitor. In matters of social justice (police violence etc.), a Trump administration is unsympathetic and tin-eared, and this leads to increased social unrest. Killings both of cops and of black activists, by disturbed individuals who have been radicalized online, increase.
Blaming Muslims as a group for jihadist terrorism, Trump continues to nourish Islamophobia in America. Hate crimes against Muslims (and those who can be mistaken for Muslims) rise. Marginalized in this way, more Muslims are in fact radicalized into violence, while a larger group is drawn towards anti-Trump liberal politics. In the Muslim world, the narrative that the west is at war with Islam gains increased acceptance, delegitimizing American values and influences and strengthening extremists and authoritarian governments alike.
Coming into office as a sexual predator with a long list of scandals, a track record of fraud and illegality, not having isolated himself from his business interests, and with ties to organized crime, international fugitives and foreign oligarchs and dictators, Trump's administration quickly shows itself to be the most corrupt and scandal-ridden in memory, with Trump blatantly using the government to enrich himself. These scandals get considerable play in the media, but the GOP Congress is too craven and partisan to take any action to censure or rein him in, at least at first.
Already loathed and feared by half the country, Trump's shtick wears thin very quickly even for many who voted for him. His approval ratings fall to somewhere around the George W. Bush low point of 25%. Resentful and vindictive, he lashes out at his enemies and tries to use the powers of his office to get even with them. This leads to illegalities and abuses that dwarf Watergate.
... So, all around a fun few years ahead.
Wow Snarky, this was uhh... surprisingly accurate.