Space Elevator...Beam me up Scottie!!

[Darth Mandarb]

As for asteroids and the recent fear mongering mega-craze, all I can say is you should petition NASA to build a giant cowboy robot with a lasso so he can ride the asteroid safely towards the sun, a futuristic Dr. Strangelove if you will.

Nah.  I don't subscribe to the fear-mongering (as you call it).  I subscribe to a common sense and logical approach to a very real problem we will have to face someday (maybe even by those reading this message).  Just this year we've had two close calls; one back in March and one just a few days ago.  While neither were "global killers" the one in march was similar in size to the Tunguska event in 1908 (800 sq miles of forest leveled).  The most recent one was discovered a whole 15 hours before it passed us by (less than two earth widths from us). 

Not exactly a lot of warning. 

Also humans will never have to face pandemics, earthquakes, volcanoes or global warming! Let's just ignore them and save a little money.

Research, from space, has led to more breakthroughs than people realize.  So the argument that, "we have problems to deal with here on earth" feels VERY close-minded to me.  Yes, any idiot knows there are problems to deal with on Earth, but space exploration has proven time and again to be the spur for innovation/discovery that can help solve those problems.

Pandemics?  NASA is conducting research to track such things from space (about 2/3 down the page).  Many common illnesses and diseases (such as influenza, diabetes, psoriasis, and even lymphoma) have drugs in clinical trials now solely because of NASAs research done in space.

Volcanoes? Caldaras (super volcanoes) went largely undetected until they were able to be viewed from space.  Opening a whole new realm of geological study and understanding.  Earthquakes?  Major advances in the understanding of plate tectonics and fault-lines came directly from the space program.  Our geological understanding has increased exponentially because of the space program.  Not just from being able to view the planet from afar but from studies of other celestial bodies and how those geological bodies function.

Yes, we have issues need dealing with here on mother Earth.  And space is the place to find the solutions.

Darth ... out.

[Calin Leafshade]

I was being sarcastic Darth :p

I fully support your position but not Progz'

[Shane 'ProgZmax' Stevens]

I think Douglas Adams said it best:

"Space is big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind- bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist's, but that's just peanuts to space."

Point being, the earth is just a speck of a dust in the vastness of space, and in spite of the odd scientist having a fit and waxing doomsday on a supposedly educational show (some of them love in particular to cite these near misses that are a million of miles off), most agree the possibility of a large asteroid impact is incredibly slim at best, though to be fair to probability it can happen.  I'm sorry that asteroids worry you; it's not fun to be worried about things, but I think our resources are better spent taking care of our myriad problems here on Earth, and we have a lot of problems here to resolve before we can even hope to start looking outward.  While NASA efforts have made several breakthroughs, I'm not sure asteroid deflection research will be terribly more useful than for asteroid deflection.

Edit:

Even reading your article about the latest asteroid flyby it gives some pretty calming information:

1.  It was over an entire Earth away in distance.  Scientists love to say how close this is because of how big space is but 14000 km is quite a lot!

2.  Asteroids just like it hit earth semi-routinely which accounts for why they are not so staunchly observed.  A massive asteroid is going to have a much larger footprint in space and be detected sooner than a 7m asteroid that is mostly burnt up in the atmosphere.


I wouldn't want an asteroid to devastate the Earth but you have to temper unrealistic fear with the sheer size of our galaxy.  I never said we should completely ignore such an eventuality, but I fully believe it should not be a priority.  Asteroid research is being conducted right now and advancements are being made.  I just think it's rather amusing and sad that people clasp the side of their faces like Macaulay Culkin and scream apocalypse right now because it's a mass media event (not you specifically, Darth).  Twenty years ago we were sure the Cold War would kill us and nobody was really worrying about asteroids.

[Darth Mandarb]

I find the quote from Douglas Adams to be very meaningful indeed.  Given the sheer vastness of space I consider a mere 14,000 km to be WAY too close.  It's like a bullet missing your head by less than the width of a human hair.  I, personally, don't see how anybody with a concept of the size of space can't see just how close that really is.  But hey, to each their own I guess.

People who panic over the issue of an impact are every bit as bad as the 2012 nut-jobs who actually believe the Mayans knew anything about the future.  They also thought the first people were made of mud, then wood, then leaves.  Yeah, I'm sure they knew about the end of days!

I never said that asteroid detection should be a priority surpassing all others.  Space exploration (research and exploration) is of major importance and asteroid detection is a part of that.  And I'm aware that it is being undertaken.  In fact, the delta II rocket carrying the WISE (wide-field infrared survey explorer) program, launches next week.  One of the main focuses of the WISE project is near earth asteroid detection.  It's a step in the right direction.

I'm sorry that asteroids worry you; it's not fun to be worried about things, but I think our resources are better spent taking care of our myriad problems here on Earth, and we have a lot of problems here to resolve before we can even hope to start looking outward.  While NASA efforts have made several breakthroughs, I'm not sure asteroid deflection research will be terribly more useful than for asteroid deflection.

As I said (a few times) asteroids do not worry me.  It's not "unrealistic" fear, rather, it's logical thinking based on scientific fact that it is going to happen again.  We [humans] are the first species on this planet that actually has the capacity/ability to do something about it.  And we should (and are).  Perhaps not enough (but I hope we never have to find that out).

As for the research into asteroid deflection being useful for nothing more than asteroid deflection... well, I'd probably tell a story of a guy named Alexander Flemming who was doing research on mucus and stumbled across a little thing called penicillin.  One can never know what will come of research.  Yes, there are myriad problems here on earth, but like I said before, the solutions are in space.

[Phemar]

I find the quote from Douglas Adams to be very meaningful indeed.  Given the sheer vastness of space I consider a mere 14,000 km to be WAY too close.  It's like a bullet missing your head by less than the width of a human hair.  I, personally, don't see how anybody with a concept of the size of space can't see just how close that really is.  But hey, to each their own I guess.

I think the point is that the asteroid missed. Space is enormously big and in galactic terms the asteroid was right on top of us. But the fact is that the asteroid missed us. The sheer probability of a big asteroid hitting us is ginormously big, so even if the asteroids come close to us, they still don't hit us. I think that's what Progz was trying to say.

[Calin Leafshade]

In 1989 the 200 metre 4581 Asclepius passed by the earth by about 700,000 km.

Now obviously you're thinking thats no problem since its along way away.

To put it into perspective thats where the earth was only 6 hours previously.

Yes, space is big. Yes, the earth is small but it only takes one of the thousand or so NEA which could be catastrophic (above 1km in size) to hit us and millions of people could die.

It seems ludicrous to dismiss such a threat on the assumption that its so unlikely it doesn't matter.

To me this is the same as Ron Paul's stance on Swine Flu.

"They made some fuss about a supposed 'pandemic' in the 70s and no one died, therefore we should ignore all pandemics as media hype"

[Shane 'ProgZmax' Stevens]

That's not really Ron Paul's position at all.  He knows the government well and how people in places of power use fear like any other tool to get what they want via mass media.  As a doctor he is concerned about the potential trouble that could come of it, as a reasonable human being he isn't going to jump the gun and make a mountain out of a molehill, though.  Ask yourself what good can come out of working people into a panic only to find out the situation is far less serious than they were led to believe.

[Calin Leafshade]

Ask yourself what negative consequences could arise from being complacent about a possible threat.

It is better to be vigilant than blasé.

[Darth Mandarb]

The sheer probability of a big asteroid hitting us is ginormously big

Yes the probability of an impact is ginormously big.  It's 100% in fact.

I actually agree with [some] of what ProgZ is saying.  Giving in to the "fear syndrome" is the wrong move.  However, most of the scientists I see discussing the subject approach it rationally (based on the science) and with the knowledge that it's just a matter of time.  Granted some of them can be a tad grandiose when they talk about it but I don't see it as fear-mongering but more as a passion for the subject.

I agree 100% with Calin's quote, "It is better to be vigilant than blasé".  It's far better to be educated about it, make a plan, and be proactive than it is to sit around, [maybe] discover it coming, and then try to react to it.

Of course this entire debate is kind of silly 'cause I really really hope we never have to find out if we're "ready" for the eventuality

[TerranRich]

It never hurts to be prepared, I always say. If you know an asteroid will eventually hit us, whether it's tomorrow or 6,000 years from now, there should always be a plan. And that plan should always be examined and revised as new technology pops up. That doesn't necessarily mean there's a global crisis and people should panic and start rioting, but if it did happen tomorrow, wouldn't you want the scientists of the world to say, "Oh, not to fear, we planned for this sort of thing. Be a minute."

[Shane 'ProgZmax' Stevens]

It is better to be vigilant than blasé.

No.  It's better to temper that sort of attitude with reasoned, ethical behavior and not to panic citizens into doing what you want them to do.  That is the sort of behavior that allows Fascism to secure and maintain a foothold in society.



And I agree that at some point we should have huge space laser beams (maybe like the Tholian Web?) that can be switched on and bounce off a series of micromirrors so anything coming in contact just gets carved into tiny bits.  That would be neat!  Technology like that is also rather far off, though (not as far as 6000 years I wager).  I do think at some point the technology will be there.  Humans have a tendency to rise to the occasion during the worst events in history, and we are equally capable of great acts of wonder and horror.  Just be a bit more optimistic, that's my advice .

Also, the Carl Sagan song!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zSgiXGELjbc&NR=1

[MrColossal]

From an asteroid defense plan to fascism? And you think other people are scared over nothing?

I just saw Phil Plait [the bad astronomer] give a talk and he said the prevailing plan is to build a rocket that has a lot of mass and position it next to any incoming projectile, leave it there for a little while and they will attract each other, put some rocket boosters on it so it stays a fixed distance away and the asteroid will move out of a collision path and we're safe from that strike.

He didn't mention any thing about fascism being needed to enact this plan but maybe I just don't know the tech tree well enough.

[Darth Mandarb]

I just saw Phil Plait [the bad astronomer] give a talk and he said the prevailing plan is to build a rocket that has a lot of mass and position it next to any incoming projectile, leave it there for a little while and they will attract each other, put some rocket boosters on it so it stays a fixed distance away and the asteroid will move out of a collision path and we're safe from that strike.

Yeah this is my favorite of the current plans... It's called the "gravity tractor".  The reason it's the most appealing to me [now] is because we already have the technology to make this possible.  The set-back for this method is it requires knowledge of the impact WAY in advance (years).  If we discover the impact only 15 hours (even a few months) in advance we'd be in some trouble!

[Shane 'ProgZmax' Stevens]

Wow Eric, hooray for being a smartass  .  Looks like you get a gold star!

My earlier comment was still addressing Calin's statement about not taking swine flu seriously, though the argument applies to anything a government tries to achieve by fear or coercion.  I wasn't specifically addressing asteroid threats there, though I still think reasoned ethical behavior needs to prevail over knee-jerk responses based on fear or ignorance (or both).  I think that's good advice all around, really, since men like Hawking and Sagan have long suggested our ends will likely come from within rather than without. 

I'm still not sure what any of this has to do with space elevators, though.  What strange discussions we have!

[Calin Leafshade]

Progz,

I fail to see what your solution would be in the event of 'impending asteroid DOOM!'

We see the asteroid maybe 24 hours in advance (which is perfectly possible) and then just say "well bugger me... It was quite unlikely though" and then just die?

I'm not saying we should drop everything and start building the laser cannons but what exactly is your position? Leave it a few hundred years when its far cheaper to go into space?

We could not rustle up a solution in 24 hours so would we just have to sit around and wait to die because we didnt have an alternative?

The threat of an asteroid strike (or any global extinction event) should be taken seriously simply because there are no second chances. We can't learn from our experience here.

Also on the subject of vigilance vs blaséness with regards to swine flu (yes i just said blaséness) what do you propose the government does instead?

A new highly contagious virus begins to spread throughout mexico.
We have precedent for a new strain of flu spreading globally (1918)
We have precedent for a new strain of flu killing very high numbers (Bird flu kills 1 in 3 or so)

Would you expect the government to say its probably nothing and ignore it until we begin to have a death toll that rivals that of seasonal flu?

If they do ignore it then it would become almost impossible to contain to any degree later on so they have to make a decision early.

Like i said... russian roulette.

[Andail]

Maybe we can leave the politics aside and focus on the technical/science fictional aspects of asteroid-fighting instead?

I find it very fascinating to ponder on the far future of mankind, in a perspective of thousands or even millions of years. Will we have spread to other planets? What will our civilization(s) be like? How will religion and philosophy be affected by the discovery of other worlds?

[Ryan Timothy B]

I would rather see the world spending money on something that will make money and advance our species.  Sure, an asteroid prevention program will give lots of people work in the meantime, and it could possibly save humanity.  But I'd rather see space ships going to the moon to mine, this space elevator (if it's possible to do) or something equally as rewarding, rather than to see billions spent on a possible prevention--which may never be needed.

Anyway, I'm not saying there isn't a chance a massive asteroid will head our way, I just don't want money and resources wasted on a possibility.  We can't learn to leap, if we're hiding in a shell.

[Wonkyth]

Hmm.
I confess, the threat of massive asteroids doesn't scare me much.

Things like Prions scare me more, but that might have something to do with various relatives dying from CJD.

[ThreeOhFour]

A quick internet search didn't turn up much useful data, so I turned to the (once) trusty old A Short History of Nearly Everything by that bearded and amusing Bill Bryson chap.

According to this lovely (yet slightly dated, admittedly) text, most of these 'close calls' weren't seen until after the event (at the time the book was written).

The fact that Darth's links show things like 6 hour warnings and the like mean that I fear my knowledge is now out of date

Curse you, formerly reliable and still interesting books! I had so much faith in you  

[Jim Reed]

Maybe we should rig laser systems (eg. movie theft alarm ones) in a net just far enough from earth to be able to react. Yeah, it would cost (maintenance and puting a very large number of satelites in space), but it's a good idea.