Abdelbaset Ali al-Megrahi

[RickJ]

Justice Secretary Jack Straw admits Lockerbie trade link
"Trade and oil played a part in the decision to include the Lockerbie bomber in a prisoner transfer deal, Jack Straw has admitted."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/8239572.stm

Who would have thought this possible?

Without question Abdelbaset Ali al-Megrahi will not die from prostrate cancer anytime soon and will live to see 2010.   It won't be long before we hear that he has had a miraculous recovery.

[Snarky]

That story talks about negotiations back in 2007, and is only saying that Straw agreed not to specifically exclude al-Megrahi from the prisoner transfer (not release) agreement. That's very different from agreeing to actually transfer him, which never happened. Also, these negotiations involved the UK government, not the Scottish one, so its relevance to this decision is speculative at best.

We can't know one way or the other whether international or other political motivations influenced the decision to release al-Megrahi. But in Scottish cases like this that are not as political, it would be normal to grant compassionate release. So if he had not been released, that would most definitely have been a political decision. You can certainly disagree with the policy, but this was not some exceptional favor granted to Libya.

As for whether his terminal illness is faked, that claim seems to be taken out of thin air. He's been diagnosed by Scottish doctors, I guess you're accusing them of lying. If he does die within the next few months, will you apologize?

[RickJ]

The bottom line is that Libya wanted the guy released and that was the price of the deal.  The UK found a way to release him.  The reset will play out over the next several months; I'm still betting that the guy will out live the three months the Scottish doctors gave him to live.       

[Andail]

Rick, I was just going to respond that I agree with you how the trade link played a part in the release is really a disgrace, but then I read in a recent article that the British and the Scottish governments are strongly denying such allegations, and I was like, huh.

Furthermore, this is what CNN reports:

"The overall impression was of a man very weak, unable really to engage in what was going on around him, and coughing quite violently at times," said CNN Senior International Correspondent Nic Robertson, who was able to get close and see him clearly.

"He seemed to be almost too frail to take part in this," he added. "His eyes were glazed over. His eyes closed several times during the four or five minutes he was on stage."

He was wheeled back offstage after the short appearance.

It is rather clear that Scottish doctors diagnosed him with a cancer that has spread to the lymphs and skeletal system, and such cancers usually permit their carriers a quarter of a year to live.

As much as I believe that politics can play a part in protecting/releasing known criminals, I think we must still accept that doctors have made this diagnosis, and that Scottland traditionally carries out compassionate releases.

What you think or bet regarding his chances of survival is not really relevant - people can live beyond a predicted date, and they can die before it.

It won't be long before we hear that he has had a miraculous recovery.

We'll see!

[RickJ]

Andail, I remain very skeptical.  My father was diagnosed with prostrate cancer at the age of 78.  The first reaction of the oncologist to whom he was referred was to question if treatment was appropriate.  This was not because of any sort of rationing or lack of insurance but rather because prostrate cancer develops so slowly (10 years or more) and 78 year old people typically have other medical conditions which would likely cause their demise before the cancer would.   

We know of this from my cousin, the urologist who first discovered the cancer and referred my father to the oncologist.  He told the oncologist "You'll change your mind when you meet him".   Of course he did when dad bounced into the office with the energy and vigor of a 10 year old.   He was successfully treated and is still going strong at 89.  Btw the survival rate is 90%+ in the US and somewhat lower in the UK.

For this guy to be in this state he would have had to have prostrate cancer several years prior to his incarceration.    Prostrate cancer is easily detected by a simple blood test (PSA).   I don't know about Scotland but in the US this test is done routinely, on an annual basis for males over 40 years.   Are not prisoners given physical exams when they are initially incarcerated and periodically after that?  Or is it the case that in Scotland prisoners are denied routine medical care?  How is it that the cancer went undetected for so long? 

Either the Scottish prison system denies prisoners routine medical care, or the Scottish health system is inept, or political pressure was brought to bear and the health care system, which I understand is run and paid for by the same government, produced the politically desired result.  We will know in  a few short months.   

[Matti]

@ Rick:

My father died this march of prostate cancer (with 66 years). It was discovered around a year before that and the doctors said it was in a very early stage and could be stopped from further growing. But within 1-2 months it suddenly became dangerously life-threatening and then it just happened.

While your statistics can be true there IS a chance that is was discovered late and that it is growing rapidly..

[RickJ]

Matti, I am sorry for the recent loss of your father.  I'm sure he is greatly missed and my prayers go out to you and your family.   Thanks for sharing your experience with us.   In light of my father's experience I am surprised of the way your father's situation played out.   Your story is a reminder to all of us to never miss an opportunity to spend time with our loved ones and to cherish every minute. 

With regard to the thread's topic: Yes, I must agree that there is a chance  that al-Megrahi is terminall ill; however, if it is so I will be surprised. 

[Matti]

Matti, I am sorry for the recent loss of your father.  I'm sure he is greatly missed and my prayers go out to you and your family.

Thanks. While I don't believe in prayers I still greatly appreciate that.

Your story is a reminder to all of us to never miss an opportunity to spend time with our loved ones and to cherish every minute.

Yeah. While I always was kinda bored when visiting my grandparents before that experience (which was the worst in my 25 years so far), now I'm always happy that they still live.

Edit: Okay, enough Off-topic. It's a rather sad story anyway...

[Andail]

Rick; according to the article, the doctors claimed the cancer had spread to the lymphs and the skeletal system, as I clearly wrote in my previous post.
I'm no doctor, but I'm sure that with that kind of development, the prognosis looks different.

[RickJ]

According to a recent article in the Telegraph.co.uk,
Lockerbie Bomber Defies Doctors' Prediction of Death, Megrahi is alive and his condition has not deteriorated and that his is in the same condition as when he left.

The article also informs us that three doctors examined Megrahi in jail on July 28, Professor Karol Sikora and Professor Ibrahim Sharif  there two doctors who made the claim that he had only 3 months to live, Professor Karol Sikora, Professor Ibrahim Sharif, and an unamed doctor.   

Professor Karol Sikora - "Was paid a one-day consultancy fee by the Libyan government to draw up a report delivered two days later. In an interview in September not long after Megrahi's release, Prof Sikora said he was initially "pessimistic" that the experts could say he would survive any less than a year. But Prof Sikora admitted that the Libyans had encouraged him to conclude that Megrahi had just three months to live following his examination. "The figure of three months was suggested as being helpful [by the Libyans]," he said. "To start with I said it was impossible to do that but, when I looked at it, it looked as though it could be done â€" you could actually say that.""

Professor Ibrahim Sharif - "Is a Libyan oncologist from the Tripoli Medical Centre, agreed Megrahi had 'about three months'."

Unamed Doctor - "While one of the doctors in the team that examined him was apparently 'more vague' about putting a limit on Megrahi's life expectancy.."

Other Doctors - "Other doctors have been reluctant to put a specific time-frame on life expectancy in patients suffering prostate cancer. Prof Nick James, professor of clinical oncology at the University of Birmingham, said: "I would not be surprised if Megrahi was still here well into next year. For sure it could be right his condition has not deteriorated." "

The article also says "While the Scottish Executive has insisted they canvassed a wide-ranging number of experts before freeing Megrahi, Prof Sikora's diagnosis is thought to have been critical to the process."

Apparently the other experts didn't give them the news they wanted to hear so they just kept asking until they found a couple of guys who would cooperate and give the right answer.  One who was supplied by the Libyan government and another who was paid by the Libyan government.   

The three month figure was critical as this was required to release a prisoner on compassionate grounds.  I stand by my assertion that the fix was in.  As time passes this will become more and more apparent.

[RickJ]

The muth$%#@er is still not dead!  Man what a surprise .  Seems  that this was all about BP getting Libyan oil contracts after all.    

Wikileaks documents (diplomatic communications) reveal that government officials knew 10 months before hand that the fix was in to release the guy. 

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503543_162-20024926-503543.html

http://www.foxnews.com/on-air/on-the-record/index.html#/v/4453114/lockerbie-justice-takes-backseat/?playlist_id=86925

[Sslaxx]

The muth$%#@er is still not dead!  Man what a surprise .  Seems  that this was all about BP getting Libyan oil contracts after all.    

Wikileaks documents (diplomatic communications) reveal that government officials knew 10 months before hand that the fix was in to release the guy. 

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503543_162-20024926-503543.html

http://www.foxnews.com/on-air/on-the-record/index.html#/v/4453114/lockerbie-justice-takes-backseat/?playlist_id=86925

The sky is blue, the grass is green, the pope is catholic. Seriously, anyone with half a brain knew this.

[Phemar]

The sky is blue, the grass is green, the pope is catholic. Seriously, anyone with half a brain knew this.

My grass is kinda brown.

[Snarky]

I just wanted to acknowledge here that unfortunately it looks like Rick was right. Or to be more precise, the evidence increasingly indicates that the Scottish government manipulated the medical diagnosis of al-Megrahi, and did not have a good-faith belief that he was likely to die in the near future when they decided to release him.

I don't find the revelations about Libyan pressure to be particularly incriminating; we knew from before that they wanted him back. And discussions about his release months in advance are not surprising either, since he had already been diagnosed with cancer at that time. To me, the only relevant issue is whether he got (or the government thought he got) an honest prognosis. And on that score, reports from earlier in the year, supported by this latest leak, make the whole thing look decidedly dodgy.

Obviously, if MacAskill and Salmond didn't really think he was about to die, and contrived to release a convicted mass murderer to go live out his life in freedom under a pretext, that is outrageous and scandalous. Just on the strength of the current evidence there should at least be an investigation, and I would want them to resign. No conclusive evidence will ever be found, of course.

[RickJ]

Thanks Snarky for the kind remarks.

... since he had already been diagnosed with cancer at that time.

This is not entirely clear either because:

1) One of the doctors who gave diagnosis and prognosis received a 6 figure payment from the Libyan government.

2) A doctor who had a dissenting opinion was dismissed from the case

3) The medical records have not been released.   If they would exonerate the Scottish government and other people involved from nefarious dealings then this information would have been made available to the press one way or an other.   The fact that the information has not been released supports the notion  that the fix was in.

Typically a PSA (prostate-specific antigen) test is used to screen for prostrate cancer.  Values range  from 0-10.   Young healthy males have a PSA less than 2.   As men age their PSA number increases.   In addition to cancer an elevated PSA can be due to a number of causes including benign tumor, enlarge prostrate, and others.    My father's PSA, for example was 5-6 for many years.  It then jumped to 8 over a short period of time (6-12mo).   They took pictures, found a half dozen tiny tumors (pencil tip size), did a biopsy, diagnosed him with prostrate cancer, and successfully treated him.   

No what if a doctor was told that a patient had prostrate cancer, was shown test result PSA=6-7, x-ray showing an egg sized tumor, and asked how long the patient would live?   It may very well be reasonable, based on this information, to give a life expectancy with a few months on the low end even though the tumor was not cancerous.

[Andail]

Just to provide closure to this discussion, I'll bring attention to al Megrahi's recent demise.
http://edition.cnn.com/2012/05/20/world/africa/obit-lockerbie-bomber/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

I guess this means the diagnose was pretty legitimate, although it took 2.5 years instead of 3 months for him to actually pass away.

[SSH]

That kind of margin of error isn't untypical in such predicitions.

It was, of course, weird the way (in)famous people seem to die on the same day:

With Robin Gibb and al-Megrahi, one was a person who belonged to an infamous organization and caused suffering to many... and the other was convicted of the Lockerbie bombing...

[Ali]

*Must... resist... Stayin' Alive remark...*

I guess this means the diagnose was pretty legitimate, although it took 2.5 years instead of 3 months for him to actually pass away.

He was definitely dying, but as Rick says there's strong reason to believe his release was more about Libyan oil than the ilness:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jul/16/release-abdelbaset-al-megrahi-mistake.

Though I was surprised that so much of the coverage of his death suggested that he was innocent. I had no idea how many people questioned the original conviction, including some relatives of the Lockerbie victims:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/lockerbie-bomber-abdelbaset-almegrahi-dead-7769459.html

My inner conspiracy theorist doesn't know what to think...